NVDA 估值客观上便宜且增长预期高；尽管存在估值倍数压缩或宏观逆风的可能，当前买入仍有利。
逐段跳播
但你可以看到，就连 Nvidia 上一季度的指引方式，他们显示毛利率为 75%，然后下一季度为 74%，股市就出现了恐慌。你们还记得，我们当时因为毛利率从 75% 降到 74% 就下跌了大约 4% 到 5%。
然后到了再下一年，是 73% 或 73.5%。所以我认为，人们很快就会习惯公司所承受的利润率水平。
But you can see even the way that like uh Nvidia, you know, was guided for last quarter, they show up 75% gross margins and then next quarter 74% gross margins and there's a panic in the stock market.
Like you guys remember, we were down like four or five% on the fact that gross margins were going from 75 to 74. Then the year after that 73% or 73 and a half%. So I think people get used to or accustomed to the margin that companies are taking on pretty quickly.
现在 Jensen 正试图展示 GPU 是一种资产，而且是一种应该以不同方式估值的资产。所以对金融方面来说，风险略有不同。那么问题是，即使现在利率因为 Jensen 和团队所做的所有这些努力而上升，即便利率在上升，它是否仍然比一两年前更好？
当时市场还认为 GPU 是一种折旧资产，你会要求更高的回报率。
now that this Jensen is trying to showcase that GPU is an asset um and it's an asset that should be valued a different way. So the risk the risk is a little bit different for the financial sides.
So the question is even if rates are increasing right now because of all that help that Jensen and the team has done even with the rates going up is it still better than it was like a year or two ago when the market used to think that GPUs were uh were a depreciating asset and you would get a higher rate on that.
但如果像 Nvidia 这样的公司能以 70% 的速度增长，好吧，股价保持不变，那么该公司的远期市盈率只会被压缩。
um but if you know a company like Nvidia can grow at 70%. Okay, the stock stays flat. The forward P of that company is only going to compress.
在什么样的世界里，靠说 Nvidia 仍在增长 70% 来对抗美联储？这有什么用呢？我的意思是，我不知道，如果标普在这种宏观环境下还能再涨 20%，无论盈利增长有多少。
in what world does fighting the Fed by saying, well, Nvidia is still growing 70%. How does that help is my like I don't know if markets if the S&P can do another 20% year in that macro, no matter how much earnings growth there is.
现在，Nvidia 是另一个问题。Broadcom 也是另一个问题，因为那些是客观上便宜的。市场不会给 Nvidia 明年的估值倍数。我的意思是，这没关系，但它甚至可能看起来比现在更划算。
它并不是最便宜的。它不必这么便宜，它可以变得便宜得多。
Now, Nvidia is a different question. Broadcom's a different question because those are objectively cheap. the market doesn't give the multiple to Nvidia next year. I mean, that's fine, but it might even look like a better uh deal than it does now.
Like it's not the cheapest. It's it it doesn't have to be this cheap. it can get a lot cheaper.
如果你在 212 买入 Nvidia，一年后醒来，宏观环境很糟糕，它还在 212，你会很高兴。你在 170 不买 Nvidia 吗？
If you buy Nvidia at 212 and you wake up a year later and we have the shitty macro and it's at 212, you'll be happy. Are you not buying Nvidia at 170?
我只知道 Nvidia 至少会增长 70%，明年甚至可能接近 80% 到 90%。这就是我所知道的。这就是 Jensen 说的。
I just know that Nvidia is going to grow at least 70% might even grow closer to 80 90% next year. That's what I know. That's what Jensen said.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 11 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。