$NVDA

NVDA看多逻辑:Vera Rubin平台将推动营收显著超出分析师预期(10月1090亿美元,1月1240亿美元)。

看涨他说的是几个月内
《3 AI Stocks We’re Buying for the Second Half of 2026!!》
Jose Najarro Stocks发布 2026-09-19 · 14 段内容
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14 段内容
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首先,你不可能在谈论人工智能时感到兴奋却不把Nvidia列入名单,对吧?Jensen在所有那些采访中都出来说,任何把人工智能描述为阴郁和悲观的人几乎都是白痴。人工智能是来让我们致富、节省我们的时间、节省我们的钱,以及更多。所以,第一只股票将是Nvidia。

First of all, you can't be excited about artificial intelligence without putting Nvidia on the list, can you? Jensen comes out in all these interviews to say that anyone who describes artificial intelligence as gloomy and pessimistic is almost an idiot.

Artificial intelligence is here to make us rich, save us time, save us money, and much more . So, the first stock will be Nvidia.

它目前的价格是222美元。该股自年初以来表现不佳,上涨了17.7%,我认为这不算差,对吧?17.7%是一个非常好的结果。我可能是因为过去几年得益于人工智能故事而产生的令人印象深刻的回报而变得贪婪,但该股已经上涨了约17%。

Its current price is $222. The stock hasn't been doing well since the beginning of the year, rising by 17.7%, which I do n't think is bad, is it? 17.7 percent is a really good result.

I may be being greedy because of the impressive returns the past few years have yielded thanks to the AI story , but the stock has risen by about 17%.

现在,值得兴奋的原因是 Vera Rubin 平台。这是即将推出的新的人工智能基础设施。他们本季度已经开始出货。他们在财报电话会议上简要提到了这一点。这是将产生巨大回报的引擎。

Now, the reason to be excited is the Vera Rubin platform. This is the new artificial intelligence infrastructure that will be launched. They have already started shipping this quarter.

They mentioned it briefly during their earnings call. This is the engine that will generate huge returns.

我们刚刚在上一期节目里谈到过,Semianalysis 指出,与 Blackwell 相比,Vera Rubin 为云消费者和云游戏玩家带来的收入要显著更多。Blackwell 已经比 Hooper 赚了多得多的钱。

所以,人们在这里排起了队。人们正排队购买 Vera Robin,而谁运营 Vera Robin,谁就会获得巨额资金并赚很多钱。但将赚得盆满钵满的公司,我们确定无疑,是 Nvidia。

We just talked, I think in the previous episode, about Semianalysis indicating that Vera Rubin generates significantly more revenue for cloud consumers and cloud gamers compared to Blackwell.

Blackwell has already made far more money than Hooper. So, people line up here. People are lining up to buy Vera Robin, and whoever operates Vera Robin will receive huge sums of money and make a lot of money.

But the company that will make tons of money, and we know that for sure, is Nvidia.

我的意思是,这里我们更仔细地看看分析师的预测。对于截至 10 月 26 日的这个季度,分析师预计大约 1090 亿美元。这太疯狂了。仅仅一个季度就有这样的收入。让我觉得奇怪的是,这是一家以我们只会在 18 或 19 倍才见到的远期市盈率交易的公司。

1090 亿美元这个数字仍然代表着 91.2% 的同比增长。而现在对于今年年底,也就是 2027 年 1 月季度,市场预计大约 1240 亿美元。

I mean, here we take a closer look at the analysts' predictions. For the quarter ending October 26, analysts are expecting around $109 billion . This is crazy. This type of revenue in just one quarter .

It is strange to me that this is a company that trades with futures profit ratios that we will only see at 18 or 19. The $109 billion figure still represents a year-on-year growth of 91.2%.

And now for the end of this year, for the January 2027 quarter, the market is expecting around $124 billion.

我在这里做一个大胆的猜测。这两个数字都会被显著超过。10 月季度我们将看到超过 1100 亿,1 月季度我们将轻松看到超过 1250 亿,因为 Nvidia 的 Vera Rubin 平台将大获成功。

I'm going to make a bold guess here. Both figures will be significantly exceeded. We will see more than 110 billion for the October quarter, and we will easily see more than 125 billion for the January quarter because Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform will be a smash hit.

再说一次,我们希望这种成功不要字面意义上地“压倒一切”,因为那是我们最不希望人工智能带来的东西。现在我们看看未来的盈利比率。公司以 18.45 倍的远期市盈率交易。你是在告诉我,一家成长型公司,一家同比增长超过 90% 的公司,正以 18.45 倍的远期市盈率交易?

我在这个频道上经常说这句话。我认为要么是市场愚蠢,要么是我们的电脑不够多。不管你怎么想,在我看来,Nvidia 正大大受益。

And again , we hope the success isn't literally "overwhelming," because that's the last thing we want from artificial intelligence. Now we look at future profitability ratios .

Companies trading with forward earnings ratios of 18.45. Are you telling me that a growth company, a company that is growing by more than 90% year-on-year, is trading with a forward earnings ratio of 18.45?

I like to say this a lot on this channel. I think the market is either stupid, or we don't have enough computers. Regardless of what you think, in my opinion, Nvidia is benefiting greatly.

很多人在谈论利润率萎缩。Nvidia 对此谈了一些,甚至 Nvidia 的历史附注也不算太糟。许多人认为,如果他们的利润率从 75% 跌到正常水平,那将是 50% 的下降。不,跌幅将是从大约 75% 到六十多。

对吧?Nvidia 通常的毛利率一直很强,因为它是一家综合性人工智能公司,而在此之前,它依靠硬件和软件帮助它实现了多元化的利润率。

Many people are talking about shrinking profit margins . Nvidia has spoken a little about it, and even Nvidia's historical footnotes aren't too bad. Many believe that if their margins ever fall from 75% to their normal levels, it would be a 50% decrease.

No, the drop will be from about 75% to the mid- sixties, right ? Nvidia's usual gross profit margins have always been strong because it is an integrated artificial intelligence company, and before that, it relied on hardware and software that helped it achieve diversified profit margins .

所以,一家拥有庞大资产负债表和巨大机会的公司,让我们更仔细地看看管理层最近说了什么。Nvidia 的首席财务官 Colette 表示,他们预计第三季度的环比增长将主要由人工智能和数据中心驱动。

而超大规模的增长预计将在第四季度和 2028 财年加速,随着 Vera Rubin 的供应随时间增加,我们预计 Vera Rubin 将占第三季度数据中心收入的约 20%。

So, a company with a huge balance sheet and tremendous opportunities, let's take a closer look at what management has said recently. Nvidia's chief financial officer, Colette, said they expect the third quarter's sequential growth to be driven primarily by artificial intelligence and data centers.

While growth in hyperscale is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2028 , as Vera Rubin's supply increases over time, we expect Vera Rubin to account for approximately 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter.

所以,在第三季度,我们将看到 AI 云的巨大增长,对吧?基础设施市场也在增长。它增长迅速。那将是一个很好的驱动力,而这正是你想看到的:对云服务提供商之外的依赖。

So, in the third quarter, we'll see tremendous growth in the AI cloud, right? The infrastructure market is also growing. It grows rapidly. That would be a good driving force , and that's what you'd like to see: reliance outside of cloud service providers.

然后他们告诉我们,在第四季度,超大规模公司,比如 Amazon、Google、Meta、Microsoft 和 Oracle,将因为 Vera Rubin 平台如此惊人而大举支出。

你预期那里的增长会加速。这些是拥有庞大预算的公司,所以它们的收入也会看到良好的加速。

Then they tell us that in the fourth quarter, hyper-domain companies, such as Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle, will be spending huge sums because Vera Rubin's platform is so amazing .

You expect growth to accelerate there . These are the ones with huge budgets, so they will also see a good acceleration in revenues .

所以,我非常兴奋,这就是为什么我不确定分析师是否真的、正确地预测了我们在 1 月 27 日季度应该看到的情况。

So, I'm very excited, and that's why I'm not sure the analysts are really and correctly predicting what we should see in the January 27th quarter .

关于 Nvidia,我们这里的第二件事,第二段文字,是我们本月早些时候开始了 Vera Rubin 平台的量产出货。因此,他们已经收到了来自每一家主要超大规模提供商、AI 云和系统制造商的采购订单。

我们预计 Vera Rubin 将代表 Nvidia 历史上最快的产量增长。

The second thing we have here regarding Nvidia, the second text, is that we started production shipments of the Vera Rubin platform earlier this month. Therefore, they have already received purchase orders from every major provider of hyperband, AI cloud, and systems manufacturers.

We expect Vera Rubin to represent the fastest production increase in Nvidia's history.

你怎么能讨厌 Nvidia?直接在下面评论区告诉我,你怎么能讨厌 Nvidia?我知道有些评论说,“哦,当你对 Nvidia 这么乐观时,这就是我们讨厌它的原因。”这是见顶的信号。来吧,没关系。

How can you hate Nvidia ? Tell me literally in the comments below, how can you hate Nvidia ? I know some comments that say, "Oh, when you're so optimistic about Nvidia, that's why we hate it."

This is the sign of reaching the top . Go ahead, that's fine.

观察点

截至10月26日当季的营收
超过1090亿美元
下一次财报财报
若超过则支撑看涨逻辑;若未达则削弱该逻辑
截至2027年1月当季的营收
超过1240亿美元
随后的财报财报
若超过则支撑看涨逻辑;若未达则削弱该逻辑

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 13 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-19看涨本条
首先,你不可能在谈论人工智能时感到兴奋却不把Nvidia列入名单,对吧?
2026-09-18看涨
以及一些影响 MetaPlatforms 和 Nvidia 的事情。
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