NVDA 看多逻辑：技术面突破 227 关口预示硬件行情；基本面显示估值相对同业便宜、供应大量锁定、CPU 营收持续增长。

Obviously, Nvidia is right on my 227 line.

And on top of that, you got uh a um you broke our 727 line on Nvidia. You know, I didn't even mention that. I'm pretty sure that was in the alpha report, too. Let me go look really quick.

Alpha report. Let's see. Uh alpha 921. And so this morning on Nvidia, did we put Oh, yeah. There we go. Okay. If Nvidia holds 220 for about 10 minutes today, I expect stable to up cues today on bullishness for the week.

Oil down, geopolitical progress, rate expectations down. Nvidia should break 22706 soon. When it does, that ushers in hardware rally 2.0.

Nvidia's commitments, just for comparison, are a multiplier on that. I want to say they're like 200 something billion bucks. Nvidia earnings report. Let's pull that. So, let's go to commitments here. 30 two items.

No, we should have it's like $280 billion or something crazy like that. Future commitments supply billions. Here we go. Total commitments. Future commitments. So between now and 2030, which I think is what AMD is disclosing, 2030 and thereafter 561.

So between Oh wow, look at this. Total future commitments between now and 2030. And then after that, they only have millions. So $30 billion total. Here I've got commitments for supply going out to 2029.

So if I just go out to 2029, it doesn't matter if I take 2030 or 29. It doesn't matter. Going out to 2030, commitments from Nvidia are 120 + 100 + 98 + 16. Let's write that down for a second.

120 + 100 + 98 + 16. that equals 334. So this is Nvidia locking up supply. Is Nvidia's commitment 2027 on I think. Yes, 2027. Wait a sec. It says remainder of ah okay. But that's fiscal year.

Oh, it's so annoying. I hate that they do that. So really they're 2031 is the comparison over here. whatever to 2031 adjusting for fiscal year. So that is what multiplier is that cuz that's 334 billion committed by Nvidia versus 30 here.

It's 10x 30 31x no sorry 11x. Nvidia has 11x the supply commitments. That's interesting because it's, you know, Nvidia is about five times the company and revenues for AMD are expected to be 88.1 2027 revenues AMD.

And if I go to Nvidia, let me see if I can get Nvidia. Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, it's going to be like $480 billion or something like that. Uh 410. Okay. 410.5 billion which is 410.5 divided by 18.1.

No, that math isn't right. 410 divided by 88.1 is 4.6. 4 point stop at 4.6x. So Nvidia basically for every dollar of commitment like size size and revenue adjusted Nvidia has 2x the commitments.

Uh you know you could argue supply secured basically. Okay that's that is an interesting comparison that doesn't make Nvidia bad. It's just I like comparing that. Okay so that's on commitments.

Cash flow statement at Nvidia. Bro, it's just not even fair. Purchases of plant property equipment for 70 billion over what time frame? 70 billion in six months. Oh my gosh. They did four.

So that's almost 20x. 70 divided by 4, 17.5x at Nvidia purchases, short-term investments, and then are they rebying the stock, too, or what are they doing? Yeah, they're they are rebying the stock, which is fair, but that was they're really only buying back the stock to offset stock comp.

Buying back stock to offset stock comp. Okay. to some extent, not entirely. If I look at their balance sheet, this should be fine. I've got 10 11 12. Those are 10 full billion dollars. 12 or sorry, 12 full billion in bills to pay.

Oh, we got it though. We got enough. 13 billion in cash. So, plenty to pay the bills. 7.2 uh accounts receivable plus obviously inventories plus inventories 8.4. So, we're fine over here.

Long-term debt nominal nominal uh basically uh nothing long-term. Okay. Uh cash net. Okay. So, here's their rev. uh their gross profit has doubled which is awesome. So their gross profit margin 6203 divided by 11536 53.7% gross you know 75% at Nvidia again I'm just making those comparisons because I think it's useful to see that is up 3059 oops 3059 divided by 7685 is 39.8% 8% prior growth.

Big bump, you know, that's that's peepy. That's that's definitely a big move. That's impressive. They lost money last year. They've exploded this year to $2 billion. So, their net margin net at 1990, oops, 1990 divided by 11536 put them at about 17.2%. 2% net.

Yeah, dude. Nvidia is at like 50% net. It's I mean, they're they're a little more mature, but it's not even a fair comparison. But I think that's what people hope that they can run into is they can get these margins by getting into data centers.

That's that's why the stock skyrocketing. Meta call covered my membership years. Nice. That's awesome. Uh, net income 59688 divided by 72142. Yeah, that's bro. What? Sorry, I divided by the wrong number.

15. I was going to say those margins are way too high. 622. Yeah. Okay. 62%. That's insane, dude. 62% net income. They're at a net of 17. That's a wild difference. But again, people are looking at Nvidia as the smaller step row and they're like, "Oh, they're, you know, they're going to catch up."

So that's really what you got going on. That's what you got cooking with with AMD, which is fine. You know, smaller stocks going to move a lot more. But to me, that's not bearish AMD.

It's bullish Nvidia. [laughter] My take on that. Uh, which is pretty remarkable. So, okay. Now, uh I want to break that down all the stuff that we have on AMD. And we're also going to talk about other companies that benefit from this, which I think would be useful, but I need a coffee and I need to hit the restroom. So, uh and then we'll go through it all.

which is exactly why Nvidia got into the play. And a lot of people forget that Nvidia, while it's our core sort of GPU play, Nvidia is expecting to blow up their CPU competition for a pure play or more pure play like AMD. Although AMD also provides GPUs.

So, Nvidia is projecting $20 billion of CPU demand in calendar year 2026 alone. Take a look at this. Nvidia just today recaptured the 727 line, which is great.

they basically had zero revenue at a year ago which actually makes AMD or sorry makes Nvidia a real competitor to AMD in the CPU space.

I mean just think about even the benchmarks alone their Helios system you're looking at versus the Vera Rubin 50% more high bandwidth memory 50% more scaleout bandwidth and about 10 to 15% more tokens per second so the Helios rack has been a great product versus Vera Rubin especially since people are wanting these CPUs right now so they've got a really good quality product and on some benchmarks AMD does actually beat Nvidia GPUs.

The Vera portion of the Vera Rubin, their epic Turan Fifth generation chip is right now projected to get to about 50% of all CPU TAM, total addressable market in data centers.

The more you get Nvidia and Apple taking off on CPU competition for AMD. Nvidia coming in to try to get some access to this TAM as well because they see the writing on the wall to move towards agentic artificial intelligence opportunities.

Now their target is to get to 50% CPU by 2030. Again right now they're a little bit lower than that. They're in the high30s. They're expecting to grow revenue remarkably though.

If you compare $88 billion for the entire year to just the revenue that Nvidia makes from data centers, Nvidia makes an entire AMD in revenue in one quarter.

Now, Nvidia is five times the size per market cap We'll have some more comparisons between them, but this is why people think if the next frontier is CPUs and Nvidia is a $5 trillion company, what's stopping AMD from being able to rise as well.

And Nvidia sees this writing on the wall, hence why they're also getting into CPUs, which is why Nvidia is also a CPU player to consider. And then Nvidia, what else do we have?

And this is where Nvidia actually has a little bit of an advantage. Uh, and so I I don't want to talk too much about Nvidia here. I've got exposure to a lot of the different stocks we're mentioning here, so I'm not short on anything. I'm pretty bullish right now.

Nvidia, though, has $334 billion in commitments in roughly the same time, in the same time frame. So this means Nvidia has 11x the supply on lock and they're 5x the company.

In fairness for Nvidia, a lot of this is going to be part of memory. A lot of this is also going to be part of their GPU business. But memory is very important.

Gaming is actually in decline at most of the manufacturing uh or designers and manufacturers including Nvidia. This is why you have AMD and Nvidia jumping on this bandwagon of trying to secure as much compute as they can now.

But Nvidia is doing it. You know, they're they're getting twice as much size adjusted as AMD is probably because they have more of a capacity to pay and and they're able to write bigger checks essentially.

But it's worth noting Nvidia is sitting at 75% gross. And AMD just came out of a loss with a 17.2% net. Nvidia is bringing to their bottom line 63%.

If I go to the income statement and I look at operating income for Nvidia, you are sitting at $63 billion. That's 30x the operating income in a quarter over at Nvidia.

But in doing so, I feel I do feel like Nvidia is also getting a little bit left behind. like it hasn't been part of the party. Nvidia's valuation is dirt cheap right now. You're talking about a valuation that is a fraction uh of AMD's valuation.

Nvidia is trading at about a one or about a.7. So you are more than two times as expensive at AMD right now as you are at Nvidia.

Is it possible then that either Nvidia catches up or AMD slows down? Maybe. I'm not calling for that. Like I wouldn't place a short bet on it.

And if you compare that to Nvidia, I haven't done this yet. Let's go take a look at it. Nvidia's mid-range on the week at about 59 and about 58 on the day. So, you can kind of see on a relative strength basis how Nvidia is getting left behind.

and you'll be like one in one competition with AMD for uh x86 architectures because ARM is going to be the product of choice likely to stay this way for Apple and Nvidia and they are coming for the CPU market.

Uh, regarding partnerships though, and this I think is very interesting. Well, you've got Apple and Nvidia with ARM.

So, you do have Lisa Sue going out to companies like Meta and OpenAI saying, "Hey, can you guys go buy six gigawatts worth of our chips? In exchange, we are going to give you shares." that is dilutive but in fairness it's just a different form of circular financing compared to what Nvidia does which is investing directly into companies the extra cash flow that they have which they have much more than AMD to give uh and then creating demand as a result of that

look over here this is the cash flow statement for Nvidia cash flow statement on Nvidia if I look at right here purchases of equity and debt securities they have literally bought $42 billion worth of other people's equity or 40 or $21 billion of other people's debt in literally six months ending July 20th.

Their cash flow is $70 billion of free cash flow. That is Nvidia's 17.5 times richer on cash flow. AMD doesn't have the margins that Nvidia does, but it's trying to get there. That's the whole point.

Again, we already went through these margins right here. 62% net compared to 17% at AMD. That's the growth side. People think Nvidia is basically topped on margins and topped on, you know, how much they can access.

But people forget that Nvidia has this whole CPU business that's starting from zero coming to compete with AMD.

Remember, 20 billion of CPU sales from Nvidia are expected in sort of a full stack sale where even if we double data center sales right now, we go over here and let's say we double and annualize this.

So let's take data center in a quarter of 6.7. Let's go 6.7* 4 that's 26.8 billion. And then let's just double it. Okay, let's just be really generous. That would be 53 billion of CPU sales in 2027.

Nvidia is expecting to sell 20 billion in 2026. Let's say they grow that by 50%. That would be 30 billion. AMD is actually got or AMD actually has competition coming right up their butt for those CPUs and it's Jensen.

He doesn't want to be out outbeat by Lisa and I get, you know, they're related, which is even the craziest part, but it's it's like a neck andneck horse race. It's really entertaining to see this.

Robotics, you want Cerebrus and you want Nvidia. Those are your big robotics place.

Nvidia, I'm looking at over 600 bucks for that stock. One and and yes, that will make it probably the first 10 trillion dollar company. And frankly, it deserves it.

So, you can see a lot of stocks like an Nvidia I think has doubled. Now, in fairness, we're comparing a newer to an older, so there's still some work to do, although Vera is still a relatively new chip for Nvidia.

We talked about Helios, so the rack system. Nvidia probably wins on full rack system. We talked about the $20 billion guide on CPUs from Nvidia, which is bullish.

Just remember the growth rates are probably going to look higher at Nvidia because they're coming off of a zero base. So you're coming off like infinite growth basically.

And now Jensen's coming out saying, "Yeah, the 70% growth we were expecting for the whole business as a whole is probably going to end up being a double."

early for Nvidia, which is crazy to say because it's a five billion dollar company,