$NVDA

NVDA股价将升破600美元并达到10万亿美元市值,动力来自进军CPU市场(200亿美元销售额)及更优的现金流。

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Meet Kevin发布 2026-09-21 · 41 段内容
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例如,我们最新的Robin芯片,其带宽能力是Nvidia所用的H100芯片的十倍。

For example, our latest Robin chip has ten times the bandwidth capabilities compared to the H100 chip that Nvidia used.

许多人忽略了一个事实:尽管Nvidia主要专注于图形处理器(GPU),但它预计将在CPU市场占据主导地位,而这一市场本应属于AMD等一家或多家专业公司。

Many people overlook the fact that Nvidia, despite its primary focus on graphics processing units (GPUs) , expects to dominate the CPU market in favor of one or more specialized companies like AMD,

Nvidia预计,仅2026年一年,CPU的需求就将达到价值200亿美元。所以,这有点意思,但很多人并不把Nvidia视为处理器领域的领导者。

Nvidia anticipates demand for CPUs worth $20 billion in 2026 alone. So, it's somewhat interesting , but many don't view Nvidia as a leader in processors.

我认为这就是Nvidia稍稍落后的原因之一。看看这个。Nvidia今天重新站上了727一线,这很棒。

I think this is one of the reasons why Nvidia is a little behind. Look at this. Nvidia has brought back the 727 line today, and that's great .

如果Q平台守住725一线,Nvidia守住720一线,也就是说,如果Q守住725一线,Nvidia守住720一线,那么我们就会上涨。

If the Q platform maintains the 725 level, and Nvidia maintains the 720 level, that is, if Q maintains the 725 level, and Nvidia maintains the 720 level, then we will rise.

如果Nvidia预测——该怎么说呢?——到2026年底CPU销售额达到200亿美元,那么值得注意的是,AMD三个月的总销售额约为115亿美元。

If Nvidia is forecasting—how would I put it?— $20 billion in CPU sales by the end of 2026, it's worth noting that AMD's total sales over three months were around $11.5 billion.

所以,Nvidia预测的销售额大致相当于六个月的销量,而在这个领域它一年前几乎没有任何收入,这使得AMD——或者说Nvidia在CPU市场是AMD真正的竞争对手。

So, Nvidia is forecasting roughly six months' worth of sales in a sector where it generated virtually no revenue a year ago, making AMD—or Nvidia is a true competitor to AMD in the CPU market .

看看基准测试结果就知道了。他们的Helios系统与Vera Rubin相比,拥有高出50%的高带宽内存、高出50%的可扩展带宽,以及快10-15%的处理速度。

Just look at the benchmark results . Their Helios system, compared to Vera Rubin, boasts 50% more high-bandwidth memory, 50% more scalable bandwidth, and 10-15 % faster processing speeds.

所以,与Vera Rubin相比,Helios是一款出色的产品,尤其是考虑到当前对这些CPU的高需求。他们拥有高质量的产品,在某些基准测试中,AMD的表现优于Nvidia的GPU。

So, Helios is a great product compared to Vera Rubin, especially given the current high demand for these CPUs . They have a high-quality product, and in some benchmarks, AMD outperforms Nvidia's GPUs.

Nvidia和Apple越是专注于在处理器市场与AMD竞争,竞争就越激烈。Nvidia也在寻求抢占这一目标市场的份额,因为它认识到专注于活跃的AI机会的重要性。

The more Nvidia and Apple focus on competing with AMD in the processor market, the more intense the competition becomes. Nvidia is also seeking to capture a share of this target market because it recognizes the importance of focusing on active AI opportunities.

它目前的目标是到2030年占据AMD处理器市场份额的50%,但目前还低于这一水平,差距不大,大约在30%左右。

Its current goal is to reach 50% of AMD's processor market share by 2030, but it's currently below that. By a small margin , at around 30%.

不过,Nvidia预计将实现显著的营收增长,AMD则预计从现在到明年营收将增长72%,达到每年880亿美元。如果把这一年度数字仅与Nvidia的数据中心营收相比,我们会发现Nvidia一个季度的营收就相当于AMD全年的营收。

However, Nvidia anticipates significant revenue growth , with AMD projecting a 72% increase in revenue between now and next year, reaching $88 billion annually. If we compare this annual figure to Nvidia's data center revenue alone, we find that Nvidia generates the equivalent of AMD's entire revenue in a single quarter.

按市值计算,Nvidia的规模是AMD的五倍。但正因如此,人们才在问:如果下一个阶段是CPU,而Nvidia的估值已达5万亿美元,那么是什么阻止AMD上升到同样的水平?

Nvidia is five times larger than AMD in terms of market capitalization . but this is why people are asking: if the next stage is CPUs, and Nvidia is valued at $5 trillion , what's stopping AMD from rising to the same level?

Nvidia认识到了这一趋势,因此它正在进入CPU市场,成为其中的主要参与者。然后是Nvidia。

Nvidia recognizes this trend, which is why it's entering the CPU market , making it a major player . Then there's Nvidia.

这正是Nvidia拥有比较优势的地方。

This is where Nvidia has a comparative advantage.

另一方面,Nvidia在差不多同一时期内拥有3340亿美元的承诺。这意味着Nvidia拥有11倍的保障供应,规模是五倍之大。

Nvidia, on the other hand, has commitments of $334 billion over roughly the same time period . That means Nvidia has 11 times the guaranteed supply, which is five times larger.

PC CPU市场相对疲软,而游戏市场对大多数制造商和设计商来说都在下滑,包括Nvidia。因此,内存价格仍在上涨。这就是为什么AMD和Nvidia眼下正竞相尽可能多地获取算力。

The PC CPU market is relatively weak, and the gaming market is declining for most manufacturers and designers, including Nvidia. Therefore, memory prices are still rising. That's why AMD and Nvidia are racing to acquire as much computing power as possible right now.

但Nvidia已经在这么做了。他们拿到的量是AMD的两倍,可能是因为他们有更多的钱可付,能开出更大的支票。但值得注意的是,Nvidia的毛利率为75%,而AMD在亏损后的净利率为17.2%。Nvidia的净利率为63%。

But Nvidia is already doing that. You know, they're getting twice as much as AMD, probably because they have more money to pay; they can write bigger checks. But it's worth noting that Nvidia's gross revenue is 75%, while AMD's net revenue was 17.2% after a loss. Nvidia's net revenue is 63%.

但如果看利润表,我们会发现Nvidia的营业利润为630亿美元。这是AMD季度营业利润的30倍。

But if we look at the income statement, we see that the income Nvidia's operating income is $63 billion. That's 30 times AMD's quarterly operating income.

我说这些并不是要暗示Nvidia更好,而是要解释为什么市场认为AMD具有显著的增长潜力。不过,我觉得Nvidia正在落后,几乎像是没有参与到这场竞争中来。

I'm not saying this to suggest Nvidia is better, but rather to explain why the market believes AMD has significant growth potential. However, I feel Nvidia is lagging behind , almost as if it hasn't been part of the competition.

Nvidia目前的估值非常低,只是AMD的一小部分。AMD的股价目前在其近期高点附近交易,市盈率为1.5到1.6倍,而Nvidia的市盈率更接近1倍或0.7倍。

Nvidia's valuation is currently very low , a fraction of AMD's. AMD's stock is currently trading at its recent high with a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.5 to 1.6, while Nvidia's is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio closer to 1 or 0.7.

那么,Nvidia的股价是否有可能追上AMD,或者AMD的增长会放缓?也许吧。

Is it possible, then, that Nvidia's stock will catch up with AMD's, or that AMD's growth will slow? Perhaps.

至于把它和 Nvidia 作比较,我还没有做。我们来看一下。Nvidia 本周平均约为 59,当天为 58。所以,从相对比较来看,你可以看到 Nvidia 落后了多少。

As for comparing that to Nvidia, I haven't done that yet. Let's take a look. Nvidia averaged around 59 for the week and 58 that day. So, you can see, from a relative comparison, how far behind Nvidia is.

AMD 与 ARM 在 x86 架构上的竞争将会非常激烈,因为 ARM 是 Apple 和 Nvidia 的首选,而且很可能继续保持这一地位,因为它们都在力争主导 CPU 市场。

The competition between AMD and ARM will be fierce over the x86 architecture, as ARM is the preferred choice for Apple and Nvidia, and will likely remain so, as they strive to dominate the CPU market.

关于合作,这一点确实很有意思,Apple 和 Nvidia 与 ARM 之间存在合作,而 Google 正在研发一款搭载处理器的 Exxon 芯片。

Regarding partnerships, which is truly interesting, we have a partnership between Apple and Nvidia with ARM, and Google is working on an Exxon chip with processors.

这会使该股贬值,但可以说,这是一种与 Nvidia 不同的循环融资形式,Nvidia 用远超 AMD 的过剩现金流直接投资于公司,然后由此创造需求。

This devalues the stock, but it's fair to say it's a different form of circular financing than what Nvidia does, which invests directly in companies with excess cash flow—far greater than AMD's—and then creates demand as a result.

看这里,这是 Nvidia 的现金流量表。如果你看他们的股票和债券购买,在截至 7 月 20 日的仅仅六个月内,他们买入了价值 420 亿美元的他人股票,或 210 亿美元的自家债务。他们的自由现金流为 700 亿美元。

Look here; this is Nvidia's cash flow statement. If you look at their stock and bond purchases, they bought $42 billion worth of other people's stock or $21 billion of their own debt in just the six months ending July 20. Their free cash flow is $70 billion.

AMD 做不到这一点,他们根本没有那些资产。如果你看他们的自由现金流,六个月内只有 40 亿美元。这意味着 Nvidia 的现金流要丰厚 17.5 倍。

AMD can't do that; they simply don't have those assets. If you look at their free cash flow, it's only $4 billion in six months. That means Nvidia's cash flow is 17.5 times richer.

好,那没问题。AMD 确实没有 Nvidia 那样的利润率,但它正在努力达到那样的水平。这就是关键所在。我们已经谈过那些利润率,净利率为 62%,而 AMD 为 17%。这就是增长方面。

"Okay, that's fine. It's true that AMD doesn't have Nvidia's profit margins, but it's striving to reach them. That's the point. We've already touched on those profit margins, where it's 62% net compared to AMD's 17%. That's the growth side.

有些人认为 Nvidia 在利润率和能力方面完全占优。但他们忘了,Nvidia 有一整块从零起步、与 AMD 竞争的 CPU 业务。

Some people think Nvidia is completely superior in terms of profit margins and capabilities. But they forget that Nvidia has an entire CPU business that started from scratch to compete with AMD.

记住,Nvidia 预计在整个市场卖出 200 亿颗 CPU,即使我们将其当前的数据中心销售额翻倍。假设我们把这个数字翻倍并换算成年销售额。假设第一季度的数据中心销售额为 66 亿美元。

假设 67 亿乘以 4。那等于 268 亿。假设我们把这个数字翻倍,而且假设得非常慷慨。那意味着 2027 年卖出 530 亿颗 CPU。Nvidia 预计 2026 年卖出 200 亿颗。

假设这会使那个数字增加 50%。那就是 300 亿美元。

Remember, Nvidia is projected to sell 20 billion CPUs in the overall market, even if we double its current data center sales. Let's say we double that number and convert it to annual sales.

Let's say data center sales in the first quarter were 6.6 billion. Let's say 6.7 billion x 4. That equals 26.8 billion. Let's double that number, and let's be very generous. That means 53 billion CPUs in 2027.

Nvidia expects to sell 20 billion units in 2026. Let's say it That will increase that number by 50%. That's $30 billion.

在机器人领域,你要选 Cerberus 和 Nvidia。那是你最重要的两项机器人投资。

In robotics, you want Cerberus and Nvidia. Those are your two most important robotics investments.

我预计 Nvidia 的股价将突破 600 美元,而这很可能使它成为第一家市值达到 10 万亿美元的公司。坦率地说,它当之无愧。

I'm expecting Nvidia's stock to go above $600, and that will probably make it The first company to reach a $10 trillion market capitalization. And frankly, it deserves it.

它的利润率不如 Nvidia,所以基于其市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG),我们应预期涨幅略低,但这仍然支撑约 944 美元的股价。

Its profit margins aren't as good as Nvidia's, so we should expect a slightly lower rise based on its price-to-growth ratio (PEG), but that still justifies a share price of around $944.

你看,许多股票已经翻倍,比如 Nvidia,而我认为 AMD 也会轻松翻倍。在我看来,AMD 目前仍上涨了 50%。哦,它现在势头很足。

You see, many stocks have doubled in value, like Nvidia, and I think AMD will easily double as well. In my opinion, AMD is still up by 50%. Oh, it has a lot of momentum right now.

比如 Nvidia,现在,平心而论,我们是在把一款较新的产品与一款较旧的产品作比较,所以还有一些工作要做,尽管 Vera 对 Nvidia 来说仍是一款相对较新的芯片。

like Nvidia, Now, to be fair, we're comparing a newer product to an older one, so there's still some work to be done, even though Vera is still a relatively new chip for Nvidia.

但那是竞争方面。我们已经谈过 Helios,那个机架系统。Nvidia 很可能会在整机架系统中胜出。而且短缺如此严重,坦率地说,它们全都在赢,所以这并不重要。

But that's the competitive side. We've talked about Helios, the rack system. Nvidia will probably win in the full rack system. And there's such a shortage that they're all winning, frankly, so it doesn't matter.

我们已经谈过 Intel。我们已经谈过 ARM。我们已经谈过 Nvidia 200 亿美元的 CPU 预测,这是一个利好。只要记住,Nvidia 的增长率很可能会显得更高,因为它是从零起步的。

所以,你说的是几乎无限的增长。而现在,Jensen 说:“是的,我们为公司整体预测的 70% 增长率很可能会翻倍。”

We've talked about Intel. We've talked about ARM. We've talked about Nvidia's $20 billion CPU forecast, which is a positive. Just remember, growth rates will probably look higher for Nvidia because they're starting from scratch.

So, you're talking about almost infinite growth . And now, Jensen says, "Yeah, the growth rate we projected at 70% for the company as a whole is likely to double."

只要记住,Nvidia 的增长率很可能会显得更高,因为它是从零起步的。所以,你说的是几乎无限的增长。而现在,Jensen 说:“是的,我们为公司整体预测的 70% 增长率很可能会翻倍。”

Just remember, growth rates will probably look higher for Nvidia because they're starting from scratch. So, you're talking about almost infinite growth. And now, Jensen says, "Yeah, the growth rate we projected at 70% for the company as a whole is likely to double."

对 Nvidia 来说,我们仍处于早期阶段,这有点奇怪,因为它已经是一家市值五十亿美元的公司。

We're still in the early stages for Nvidia, which is odd because it's a five-billion-dollar company,

我觉得 AMD 和 Nvidia 目前是赢家,但这很了不起。

I feel like AMD and Nvidia are the winners right now, but that's amazing.

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 24 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-21看涨本条
例如,我们最新的Robin芯片,其带宽能力是Nvidia所用的H100芯片的十倍。
2026-09-21看涨
显然,Nvidia正好落在我的227这条线上。
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