UBER 相对其持续增长以及作为出行/外卖聚合平台的领先地位而言被低估,这一优势将延续,尽管市场担忧自动驾驶汽车的竞争。
逐段跳播
好,我想带到市场上讨论的第二只股票,其实这里还有另一只附带提到的,是 Uber。Uber 是我全年一直看好的公司之一,但市值 1500 亿美元,市盈率按前瞻口径只有约 16 倍,差不多,约 17 倍。
对于一家不仅持续保持两位数增长、而且增速超过 20% 的公司来说,这个估值相当合理。
All right, the second stock that I wanted to bring to the market, and I've actually got another tag along here, is Uber. And Uber is one of these companies that I've been bullish on all year, but $150 billion market cap, price earnings multiple is only about 16 on forward basis, it's similar, it's about 17. So pretty reasonable valuation for a company that is consistently growing not only in double digits, but in excess of 20%.
看 Uber 时,你要关注的不仅仅是营收增长。由于他们确认营收的方式,营收增长里有一点噪音。比如你为一次 Uber 行程支付 10 美元,他们实际上并不会产生 10 美元的营收。
他们利润表上不是这个数字,而是 10 美元的预订额(bookings)。他们实际确认为营收的,是所谓的抽成率(take rate)。这个数字会因季度不同而逐年变化。此外,某些地区也有变化。
我记得是在英国,他们最近从把全部营收、全部预订额都确认为营收,改为按会计规则变化后的方式,现在只确认抽成率。所以增长率最近看起来像是放缓了,但如果你看他们的毛利润、营业利润、自由现金流、预订额,这些都没有放缓,一直是持续增长。
And what you want to look at with Uber is not just revenue growth. There's a little bit of noise with revenue growth because of the way they account for the revenue. So, if you pay, let's say, $10 for an Uber ride, they don't actually generate $10 in revenue. That's not what they have in their income statement, but it's $10 in bookings. So, what they actually take as revenue is what they what's called their take rate. And that can change uh year year to year depending on the quarter. And then there's also changes in certain areas. So I believe it was in the UK that they recently changed from accounting for all of that revenue, all of that booking as revenue to the way that the accounting rules changed is now it's just their take rate. So the growth rate actually looks like it's slowed recently, but if you look at their gross profit, their operating profit, their free cash flow, their bookings, none of that is slowing and it's just been consistent growth.
现在,Uber 的故事以及市场真正担心的是,自动驾驶汽车真的会抢走市场份额,像 Whimo 和 Tesla 这样的公司未来基本上会让 Uber 变得过时。我认为这种观点忽略的是,全球至少有十几家公司正在开发类似的自动驾驶汽车技术。
这需要一段时间才能推向市场,但如果你把眼光放到 5 年、10 年后,不会只有两家自动驾驶汽车制造商。大概会有 10 到 20 家之间。而如果你有 10 到 20 家、10 到 20 家供应商,就不会有 10 或 20 个不同的应用,各自拥有足够多的车辆供你点餐、叫车,或者现在在 Uber 上订购任何你可能想订购的产品。
所以,我认为它作为需求聚合者的地位——也就是你选择去哪里、人们选择去哪里找车、点餐的那个应用——仍然会是一个非常强大的位置。只是它下面承载的出行方式会改变。我认为这是市场上那些领域之一:如果你能看穿市场正在想的那个故事,即当下正在发生的颠覆故事,尤其是来自 Tesla 和 Whimo 的,去看市场未来实际上会是什么样子,这可能是一个相当有利可图的领域。
从历史上看,这些拥有这么多用户——约 2 亿月活跃用户——这么多营收、这么大势头的公司,不会一夜之间就消失。它们也许不会像过去增长那么快。这对 Uber 来说非常可能。尽管我认为这个行业背后有很多顺风,但我认为这只是那种估值,你看着它,5 年或 10 年后它会看起来像捡了个大便宜。
Now, the story with Uber and what the market is really worried about is that autonomous vehicles are really going to take market share and companies like Whimo and Tesla are going to essentially make Uber obsolete in the future. What I think that view is missing is there's at least a dozen companies around the world that are developing similar autonomous vehicle technology. This is going to take a while to get to market, but if you think 5 10 years out, there's not going to be two autonomous vehicle manufacturers. There's probably going to be somewhere between between 10 and 20. And if you have 10 and 20 between between 10 and 20 suppliers, there's not going to be 10 or 20 different apps with enough vehicles available for you to order food or order a ride or now order any sort of product that you maybe want to order on Uber. So, I think that position as a demand aggregator where it's the app that you go to choose where the that people choose to go to to to find a ride to order food, that's going to still be a very powerful position. It's just the type of ride underneath it is going to change. And I think this is one of those areas in the market where if you can look past the story that the market is thinking about the disruption story happening today, particularly from Tesla and Whimo, and look at what is the market actually going to look like in the future, this can be a pretty profitable space. And historically, these companies that have this many users, about 200 million monthly active users, have this much revenue, have this much momentum, they don't just disappear overnight. They maybe don't grow as fast as as they used to. That's very possible for Uber. Although I think there is a lot of tailwinds behind the industry, but I I think this is just one of those valuations that you look at it and this is going to look like a steal five or 10 years from now.
是的,我很少见到现实与恐惧之间的鸿沟像 Uber 这里这么宽。举一个例子,Uber 表示,自 Whimo 推出以来,它在旧金山的市场份额实际上还上升了。
Yeah, I've rarely seen a canyon so wide between reality and fear as I have here with Uber. And just to throw out one anecdote, Uber saying that its market share in San Francisco has actually increased since Whimo launched.
而且我认为没有人意识到,如果他们说,Whimo 的增加会让 Uber 变得过时。到目前为止,在我们已有的测试市场里,情况并非如此。事实上,恰恰相反。
And I don't think anyone appreciates that if they're saying, well, it's going to make Whimo the increase of Whimo is going to make Uber obsolete. So far in the test markets that we have, that is not the case. In fact, the opposite is true.
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。