VICI 近期的下跌被夸大；考虑到预期的股息增长，该股具备价值与收益潜力。
逐段跳播
最后，我们来看Vichy，这只股票过去一年下跌了24%，过去5年下跌了16.3%。这是一只我在过去几周里非常频繁地覆盖的股票，但我实际上确实认为这轮抛售被夸大了，所以稍微剧透一下，在当前价格下，股息率现在已超过7.4%。
基本上是我们今天看过的最高股息率，股价处于52周低点。
And finally, we come to Vichy stock down 24% in the last year and in the last 5 years down 16.3%. Now, this is a stock I've covered very frequently over the last few weeks, but I actually do think the sell-off has been overstated, so a little bit of a spoiler alert, but at current prices, the yield is now pushing over 7.4%.
So, basically the highest yield that we've looked at today, trading at a 52-week low.
有意思的是，在7.4%、4%的收益率下，股息覆盖得非常好。对于REITs，我们看的是调整后营运资金（AFFO）相对于其股息派发额的比例。股息覆盖得非常好。他们的目标派息率大约是70%到75%。
所以他们确实还有一些资本剩余，可以用来支持内部增长，这一点我们稍后再谈。
Now, what's interesting is with that 7.4% 4% yield, the dividend is very well covered. Now, again, for REITs, remember, we look at adjusted funds from operation relative to how much they're paying out in dividends.
And again, the dividend is very well covered. Their target payout ratio is roughly 70 to 75%. So, they do have some capital left over to fund internal growth, which we'll get back to that in a moment.
但除此之外，近期的抛售很有意思，因为股价确实在下跌，但调整后营运资金却逐年持续增长，并且预计将保持这一趋势。所以自然，如果股票的盈利在增长，而价格在下跌，估值倍数就会变得更有吸引力，他们目前的股价与AFO倍数处于过去5年来的最低水平，仅为9.98倍。
But on top of this, the recent sell-off is interesting because yes, the stock is selling off, but adjusted funds from operations have continued to grow every single year, and it's projected to remain that way.
So naturally, if the stock's earnings are growing, but the price is declining, the valuation multiple becomes much more attractive, and they're now trading at their lowest price to AFO multiple in the last 5 years at just 9.98x.
那么为什么会出现这种情况？我们可以指出几个不同的原因。首先，我们知道Vichi的前两大租户约占整个租金收入的70%，而这两家都预计将在未来几年内私有化。那么，为什么这很重要？这并不一定会改变Vichy Properties的租约条款，但这确实意味着投资者将失去对这两大租户租金覆盖情况的实际了解。
那么，为什么这很重要？这意味着未来现金流的可预测性降低。而每当未来现金流的可预测性降低时，投资者就愿意支付更低的估值倍数。所以，在某种程度上，较低的估值倍数是合理的。但这样的跌幅是否合理？这就是问题所在。
So why is this the case? Well, there's a couple of different things that we can point to. To start, we know the top two tenants for Vichi make up about 70% of the entire rent roll, and both of them are projected to go private over the next couple of years.
Now, why is that important? Well, it doesn't necessarily change the lease terms for Vichy Properties, but it does mean investors are going to lose insight into what the rent coverage for those two tenants actually looks like.
And so, why is that important? Well, it means there's less predictability in future cash flows. And anytime we have less predictability with future cash flows, investors are willing to pay a lower valuation multiple.
So, to some degree, a lower valuation multiple is justified. Is this much of a decline justified? That's the question.
另外我们必须指出的是，他们最近的股息增幅仅为约2.2%，低于我们历史上看到的水平。我在X和YouTube视频中谈过这可能的原因。归根结底，这可以归结为两点。他们正在降低目标AFO派息率，这未必是坏事，因为他们需要更多资本来支持内部增长。
目前利率非常高，举债远不如历史上那么有吸引力。但与此同时，发行股票也没有那么有吸引力，因为股价在过去5年和过去一年里大幅下跌。所以，当发行股票没有吸引力、举债也没有吸引力时，利率会怎么做？
它会保留更多现金流来支持未来增长，这意味着你必须以更低的幅度降低股息。我认为这是非常可能的情况。
Now, the other thing we do have to point out is their recent dividend increase was only about 2.2%. Which is lower than what we've historically seen. And I've talked on X and in YouTube videos as to why this might be.
And really, it boils down to two different things. They're lowering their target AFO payout ratio, which is not necessarily a bad thing because they need more capital to fund internal growth.
Right now, with interest rates very high, taking on debt is not nearly as attractive as it's historically been. But at the exact same time, issuing stock isn't as attractive. When the stock has declined considerably over the last 5 years and over the last year.
So, when issuing stock isn't attractive, taking on debt isn't attractive, what is the rate going to do? Well, it's going to retain more cash flow to fund future growth, which means you have to lower the dividend by a lower amount. I think this is a very likely case.
另外我们必须指出的是，这只股票的利息支出也可能增长，因为他们必须以更高的利率为债务再融资。例如，在未来一年内，大约10%到15%的债务需要以更高的利率进行再融资，这意味着更高的利息支出，最终将降低每股AFO。
因此，如果我们继续看到未来几年利息支出上升的趋势，这可能会拖慢每股AFO的增长。这是我们必须考虑的另一件事。
Now, the other thing we do have to point out is interest expense will likely grow for this stock as well as they have to refinance debt at higher rates. For example, over the next year, roughly 10 to 15% of their debt will need to be refinanced at a higher interest rate, meaning higher interest expense, which ultimately will lower AFO per share.
So if we continue to see a trend of higher interest expense over the next few years, that could slow AFO per share growth. That's the other thing we have to take into consideration.
但话虽如此，以下是我认为Vichi在当前价格下仍然具有吸引力的原因。再缩小看一下。看看我们的估值倍数模型和股息贴现模型。让我们仔细看看Vichy。我们可以看到，如果Vichy的股息仅增长2%，在当前价格下仍有10%的上涨空间。
如果增长3%，我们说的就是32%的上涨空间。我确实认为存在一个现实的场景，他们能够做到这一点。例如，他们预计未来一年每股AFO将增长约3.3%。如果我们看分析师的预测，它大致保持在这个范围内。
所以这些肯定不是保证的回报，但你可以看到有很大的上涨空间。我确实认为抛售被夸大了。所以这是比较有意思的高收益机会之一。
But with all this being said, here's why I think Vichi is still attractive at current prices. Go ahead and zoom out again. Look at our valuation multiple model and look at the dividend discount model.
Let's take a close look at Vichy here. What we can see is if Vichy just grows dividends at 2%, there's still 10% upside at current prices. And if they grow it at 3%, we're not talking about 32% upside.
And I do think there's a realistic scenario where they can pull this off. For example, they're projected to grow AFO per share at roughly 3.3% over the next year. And if we look at analyst projections, it stays somewhere roughly in that range.
So those definitely aren't guaranteed returns, but you can see there's a lot of upside. I do think the sell-off has been overstated. So this is one of the more interesting high yield opportunities.
观察点
这个频道对 $VICI 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。