是的,巴菲特刚刚将他在A类股的头寸增加了45%,并且他还将C类股在伯克希尔投资组合中的比例提高到了3.2%。所以,这现在是他第四大持仓,而疯狂的是,谷歌在过去3个月里可能变得更有价值了。
Yes, Buffett just added another 45% to his position in the A shares, and he's bumped the C shares up to a 3.2% position in the Berkshire portfolio as well. So, this is now his fourth largest holding, and the crazy thing is Google has arguably gotten even better value over the past 3 months as well.
当我们报道第一季度财报时,谷歌的市盈率大约在30倍左右,而Simply Wall Street根据其贴现现金流模型认为其被高估了20%。
Back when we covered the first quarter filing, Google was trading around a PE of 30, and Simply Wall Street had it sitting at 20% overvalued from their discounted cash flow.
现在快进到现在,发生了两件事。一是过去12个月的盈利绝对飙升,达到2440亿,这导致市盈率一路下降到大约17倍。
Well, fast forward to now, two things have happened. One, earnings have absolutely taken off up to 244 billion over the past 12 months, and what that's done is it's pulled the PE ratio all the way down to about 17.
所以,这不是因为股价下跌导致谷歌变得更便宜,而是因为业务盈利大幅提升,使得市盈率倍数实际上被压缩了,这在估值方面也有所体现。
So, this isn't Google getting cheaper because the stock price has gone down, it's the business getting so much more profitable that the multiple has actually compressed, and that shows up on the valuation side, too.
Simply Wall Street的贴现现金流模型现在认为谷歌被低估了大约22%。所以,与上个季度相比,这是一个非常大的转变。
Simply Wall Street's discounted cash flow model now has Google around 22% undervalued. So, a very big swing from where it was last quarter.
但需要明确的是,业务本身并没有真正改变,对吧?在一个季度内它并没有发生太大变化,计划也没有改变。他们仍然在花费巨额资金。你可以从自由现金流数字中看到这一点,对吧?盈利2440亿,但自由现金流只有530亿。
But, to be clear, the business hasn't really changed, right? It hasn't changed all that much in one quarter, and the plan hasn't changed, either. They are still spending an enormous amount of money. You can see it in the free cash flow numbers, right? Earnings of 244 billion, but free cash flow of only 53 billion.
看看现在的差距,非常巨大。而这个差距全部是资本支出。它投入到AI基础设施、数据中心、芯片,以及我们所说的超大规模军备竞赛中。
Look at the discrepancy now, it's massive. And that gap, it's all CapEx. It's going into AI infrastructure, it's going into data centers, it's going into chips, it's going into the hyper scaler arms race, as we call it.
但这就是为什么我觉得谷歌非常有趣,因为他们可能正是最适合全力投入AI支出而不会因此受到严重伤害的公司之一,即使AI发展不如预期。
But, this is why I find Google really interesting, because they might just be one of, if not the best positioned company to actually go all in on that AI spend without getting too badly burned by it, even if it goes wrong.
所以,他们拥有2420亿的现金和短期投资,而总债务仅为1000亿。因此,其债务权益比为0.156,非常低。这几乎是在超大规模企业中能找到的最接近金融堡垒的资产负债表,如果不是最好的话。
So, they're sitting on 242 billion of cash and short-term investments against just a hundred billion dollars of total debt. So, it's a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.156. It's very low. It's about as close to a financial fortress balance sheet as you're going to find among the hyperscalers, if not the best.
所以,尽管他们每个季度都在AI竞赛中投入数百亿美元,但他们手头仍有大量现金储备,老实说,他们完全可以承受这样的支出。
So, while they pour tens of billions into the AI race literally every single quarter, they've got so much dry powder on the sidelines that, honestly, they can just get away with it.
所以,与上个季度类似的结论是,巴菲特以合理的价格买入了一家优秀的公司。
So, similar conclusion to last quarter, this is Buffett buying a wonderful company at a fair price.
还要记住,他能考虑的公司圈子非常小,这些公司能对伯克希尔产生重大影响。所以,这肯定也是他做出这项投资的一个因素。
And remember, too, that his circle of companies that he can even look at, you know, that will shift the needle at Berkshire, is so very small. So, that definitely plays a factor in why he's made the investment, as well.
伯克希尔·哈撒韦,他们正在买入,特别是沃伦·巴菲特,正在买入更多的谷歌。
Berkshire Hathaway, they are buying, Warren Buffett specifically is buying, even more Google.
你可以在五年图表上看到,它实际上处于过去几年市盈率区间的底部附近。
You can see it here on the 5-year chart. It's actually sitting near the bottom of its PE range for the last few years.