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$GOOGLNew Money发布 2026-08-25
The Super Investors Are Buying BIG.
GOOGL被低估且是好的买入标的;盈利增长将市盈率压缩至约17倍,DCF显示低估22%,强劲的资产负债表支持AI支出。
看涨

是的,巴菲特刚刚将他在A类股的头寸增加了45%,并且他还将C类股在伯克希尔投资组合中的比例提高到了3.2%。所以,这现在是他第四大持仓,而疯狂的是,谷歌在过去3个月里可能变得更有价值了。

Yes, Buffett just added another 45% to his position in the A shares, and he's bumped the C shares up to a 3.2% position in the Berkshire portfolio as well. So, this is now his fourth largest holding, and the crazy thing is Google has arguably gotten even better value over the past 3 months as well.

当我们报道第一季度财报时,谷歌的市盈率大约在30倍左右,而Simply Wall Street根据其贴现现金流模型认为其被高估了20%。

Back when we covered the first quarter filing, Google was trading around a PE of 30, and Simply Wall Street had it sitting at 20% overvalued from their discounted cash flow.

现在快进到现在,发生了两件事。一是过去12个月的盈利绝对飙升,达到2440亿,这导致市盈率一路下降到大约17倍。

Well, fast forward to now, two things have happened. One, earnings have absolutely taken off up to 244 billion over the past 12 months, and what that's done is it's pulled the PE ratio all the way down to about 17.

所以,这不是因为股价下跌导致谷歌变得更便宜,而是因为业务盈利大幅提升,使得市盈率倍数实际上被压缩了,这在估值方面也有所体现。

So, this isn't Google getting cheaper because the stock price has gone down, it's the business getting so much more profitable that the multiple has actually compressed, and that shows up on the valuation side, too.

Simply Wall Street的贴现现金流模型现在认为谷歌被低估了大约22%。所以,与上个季度相比,这是一个非常大的转变。

Simply Wall Street's discounted cash flow model now has Google around 22% undervalued. So, a very big swing from where it was last quarter.

但需要明确的是,业务本身并没有真正改变,对吧?在一个季度内它并没有发生太大变化,计划也没有改变。他们仍然在花费巨额资金。你可以从自由现金流数字中看到这一点,对吧?盈利2440亿,但自由现金流只有530亿。

But, to be clear, the business hasn't really changed, right? It hasn't changed all that much in one quarter, and the plan hasn't changed, either. They are still spending an enormous amount of money. You can see it in the free cash flow numbers, right? Earnings of 244 billion, but free cash flow of only 53 billion.

看看现在的差距,非常巨大。而这个差距全部是资本支出。它投入到AI基础设施、数据中心、芯片,以及我们所说的超大规模军备竞赛中。

Look at the discrepancy now, it's massive. And that gap, it's all CapEx. It's going into AI infrastructure, it's going into data centers, it's going into chips, it's going into the hyper scaler arms race, as we call it.

但这就是为什么我觉得谷歌非常有趣,因为他们可能正是最适合全力投入AI支出而不会因此受到严重伤害的公司之一,即使AI发展不如预期。

But, this is why I find Google really interesting, because they might just be one of, if not the best positioned company to actually go all in on that AI spend without getting too badly burned by it, even if it goes wrong.

所以,他们拥有2420亿的现金和短期投资,而总债务仅为1000亿。因此,其债务权益比为0.156,非常低。这几乎是在超大规模企业中能找到的最接近金融堡垒的资产负债表,如果不是最好的话。

So, they're sitting on 242 billion of cash and short-term investments against just a hundred billion dollars of total debt. So, it's a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.156. It's very low. It's about as close to a financial fortress balance sheet as you're going to find among the hyperscalers, if not the best.

所以,尽管他们每个季度都在AI竞赛中投入数百亿美元,但他们手头仍有大量现金储备,老实说,他们完全可以承受这样的支出。

So, while they pour tens of billions into the AI race literally every single quarter, they've got so much dry powder on the sidelines that, honestly, they can just get away with it.

所以,与上个季度类似的结论是,巴菲特以合理的价格买入了一家优秀的公司。

So, similar conclusion to last quarter, this is Buffett buying a wonderful company at a fair price.

还要记住,他能考虑的公司圈子非常小,这些公司能对伯克希尔产生重大影响。所以,这肯定也是他做出这项投资的一个因素。

And remember, too, that his circle of companies that he can even look at, you know, that will shift the needle at Berkshire, is so very small. So, that definitely plays a factor in why he's made the investment, as well.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦,他们正在买入,特别是沃伦·巴菲特,正在买入更多的谷歌。

Berkshire Hathaway, they are buying, Warren Buffett specifically is buying, even more Google.

你可以在五年图表上看到,它实际上处于过去几年市盈率区间的底部附近。

You can see it here on the 5-year chart. It's actually sitting near the bottom of its PE range for the last few years.

$GOOGLEverything Money发布 2026-08-25
If You're an Amazon Shareholder… Get Ready! $AMZN
谷歌是首选股;对该股的长期信念会得到回报,尽管面临监管裁决,它仍然是一个强劲的押注。
看涨

现在,在另一家公司,我们的一位成员贝勒,他开始以大约每股134美元的价格对谷歌进行定投。各位,你们要记住,当谷歌在134时,它正在跌向85。人们都在说谷歌的坏话。它迷失了方向。

AI将取代它。YouTube被TikTok取代。让我们解雇CEO。

Now, in a different company, one of our members, Baylor, he started dollar cost averaging into Google at around 134 a share. Guys, you got to remember when Google was at 134, it was on its way down to 85. And people were all over Google. It's lost its way. AI is going to replace it. YouTube is replaced by Tik Tok. Let's fire the CEO.

但他做了一些不同的事情。他计算了数字。他使用了学到的流程。他在社区内建立了自己的信念,而其他投资者告诉他他疯了。

But he did something different. He ran the numbers. He used the process that he learned. He built his conviction inside the community while other investors were telling him he was crazy.

谷歌跌到了85美元。他坚持了自己的信念,现在股价已经超过每股340美元。伙计们,那不是运气。尤其是当它在下跌时他仍然跟进。这就是当你有一个流程和一群人在你身边做真正的工作,而不是追逐头条新闻时会发生的事情。

Google went down to 85. He kept his conviction and now it's over $340 per share. Guys, that's not luck. Especially as he followed it when it was going down. That's what happens when you have a process and a group of people around you doing the real work instead of chasing headlines.

像微软和谷歌这样的公司仍然严重依赖外部芯片制造商来扩展他们的业务。

Companies like Microsoft and Google still rely heavily on outside chip makers to expand their business.

在联邦法院今年早些时候对谷歌的搜索和广告技术垄断做出裁决之后,这种威胁现在感觉更加真实了。

This threat feels a lot more real now after the federal rulings against Google's search and adtech monopoly earlier this year.

只是如果你问我第一名的位置,我仍然会押注谷歌或亚马逊。

It's just if you're asking me for the number one position, I would still bet on like Google or Amazon.

I’m Buying $10,000 Of This Company Next
谷歌当前价格并不便宜;持有但不买入;买入目标价250美元意味着5年内14.1%的年复合增长率。
未明确方向

谷歌,这是我目前最大的持仓。这是一个27,000美元的仓位,浮盈113,000美元。谷歌今天交易价格约为347美元。所以,在347美元时,它的市盈率是26倍,自由现金流收益率为1.2%。

我不认为谷歌今天便宜。我现在不会买入。我继续持有它,主要是因为它是如此优秀的公司,我相信它的未来是光明的,但总的来说,我不认为它是一只值得立即买入的股票。我为谷歌设定的买入目标价是250美元,比当前价格低约100美元。

Google, which is my current largest position. It's a $27,000 position with $113,000 in the green. Google today trades at around $347. So at 347, it's trading at a 26 Ford PE ratio and a 1.2% free cash flow yield. I don't believe that Google's cheap today. I'm not buying it right now. I continue to hold it mostly because it's such a good company and I believe the future is bright for it, but overall it's not a company that I think is a screaming buy. And the buy target that I've set for Google is $250, so around $100 less than its current price.

如果我们假设未来5年每股收益增长率放缓至12%,很多人可能会说谷歌的增长远不止于此,这是事实,但他们将面临大量支出。他们正在建设大量的数据中心。他们在资本支出上投入了大量资金,这将转化为广告费用。

所以,我假设增长率将放缓。再说一次,这些是我认为保守的假设。我们假设未来5年每股收益增长率为12%。然后我们得到合适的每股收益倍数。现在,这有点主观判断。你可以说谷歌应该以30倍、35倍或25倍交易。

再次,我想非常保守。我假设它应该以22倍交易,因为如果每股收益开始放缓,也许投资者会说:“嘿,看,它增长没那么快了。我们会将其交易倍数降至22倍。”所以,这看起来有点令人困惑,因为我们在这里使用假设,但为了简单起见,如果我们以250美元买入谷歌,并且假设它以12%增长,每股收益倍数为22,这意味着我们将在未来5年获得14.1%的复合增长率。

这意味着如果我们以250美元买入谷歌,我们将从那个买入价获得大约翻倍的回报。谷歌将从250美元涨到484美元。所以,我们记下这一点。谷歌获得那10,000美元额外现金的买入目标价是250美元。

If we assume that the growth rate slows down to 12% earnings per share growth for the next 5 years, which a lot of people may argue and say Google's growing way faster than that, that's true, but they're going to have a lot of expenses. They're building out mass amounts of data centers. They're spending all of this money on capex, which will transform into advertised expenses. So, I'm assuming that the growth rate is going to moderate. And again, these are what I believe are conservative assumptions. We assume a 12% earnings per share growth rate over the next 5 years. Then we get to the appropriate earnings per share multiple. Now, this is a bit of a judgment call. You can say that Google should trade at a 30p or 35 or 25. Again, I want to be very conservative here. I'm going to assume that it should trade at a 22 because if the EPS starts to slow down, maybe investors say, "Hey, look, it's not growing as fast. We're going to we're going to trade it down to a 22 earnings per share multiple." So, this looks a little confusing because we're going with hypotheticals here, but just to make this very simple, if we were to buy Google at $250 and we had these assumptions that it grew at 12% and it had an EPS multiple of 22, that means that we would get a compounded growth rate of 14.1% over the next 5 years. Which means that if we bought Google at that $250, we would about double our return from that buyin price. Google would trade from $250 up to $484. So, we'll make a note of this. The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.

所以,我们记下这一点。谷歌获得那10,000美元额外现金的买入目标价是250美元。

So, we'll make a note of this. The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.

Gan,你对谷歌也有同样的看法。你认为CHACBT会摧毁谷歌。你说这对谷歌来说将是一个巨大的变革。你说10个蓝色链接将不再存在,谷歌将成为一个糟糕得多的公司。当谷歌股价为每股170美元时,你非常看跌。

它处于低价,完全低迷。情绪非常糟糕。你上CNBC,一直在谈论谷歌,说这只股票有多糟糕,它不会表现好。现在你持有谷歌。这是你最喜欢的仓位之一。你在谷歌股价上涨100%后上CNBC,说它将上涨。

所以,当报告显示谷歌一切正常时,你的情绪变得更加积极。

Gan, you had the same view on Google. You thought CHACBT was gonna destroy Google. You said it was going to be a big sea change for Google. You said the 10 blue links were no longer going to survive and that Google is going to be a way worse company. You were so bearish on Google when it was trading at $170 per share. It was is at a low price, completely depressed. Sentiment was terrible. And you went on to CNBC and you were talking all the time about Google, how bad this stock was, how it's not going to do well. Now you own Google. It's one of your favorite positions. You go on CNBC seeing how it's going to go up after Google's stock price went up 100%. So you became more more positive sentiment when the reports showed that Google was just fine.

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