SMH is in a parallel channel; breaking above the declining trend line would confirm bullish sentiment and allow semis to run.

Most importantly, I'm gauging bullish sentiment with this chart right here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you see here, finished basically flat on the day, down .01%. Now, after hours, slipping just ever so slightly in anticipation of these Nvidia earnings.

And I'll remind you guys, I've been highlighting these moving averages on this chart, and I've been doing so for a reason. You see this 50-daily moving average in blue that comes in through the screen.

We had one day above it, and then a technical sell-off from that point. The sell-off has pushed price back into the parallel channel that price has been contained since the liberation day lows.

So, we've now dropped back into that trajectory. This trajectory, to remind you, began back here. We were very tight within that range for an awful long time before we dipped to the bottom and broke to the upside.

Now, we're knocking on the door from the top coming down.

So, that tells us any bad earnings on Nvidia, next support this 50% area of the parallel channel at 528.46. But guys, this is what makes this Nvidia report so much more significant for the markets if we actually have a positive push, we could potentially break back out of this inclining parallel, but then most importantly for near-term direction, break above this declining trend line.

You notice we haven't gotten that far away from it. Matter of fact, last 2 days just getting closer, moving sideways. So, that's what I'm watching for near-term bullish sentiment.

We get price action above this declining trend line, I could say then the semis have some room to run and that would also imply the rest of the markets will have some room to run, too.