Failed breakout on SMH indicates likely downside to $531.23 support due to yield pressure and AI CapEx concerns.

Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.

In near-term, we've had little glimpses of hope with the semis pushing up above, which likely will push and carry the rest of the markets with them, but it hasn't happened yet.

And all you got to do, guys, is just draw one trend line on your chart, get that at the high of the SMH, draw it down to the next major candle on the chart that occurred here on June 30th, and extend that all the way down.

And you notice here on Thursday of last week, we had one candle closing above not only this declining trend line, but this larger inclining parallel channel that dated back to the April 2025 lows.

That was a great one-day push, but then Friday erased all of those hopes.

We wanted to see a follow-up push higher with a daily close above Thursday's candle, and guys, we did not get that. So, near-term failed breakout attempt here on the chart of SMH.

That tells me any sort of failed move tells me we're likely coming down to the next support, which is going to be down here at $531.23. Makes sense when we flip over to the 10-year uh yield chart on the next chart.

We likely are going to be due for more pressure in the markets, particularly companies like this that are uh investing so much in CapEx spending for AI data center build-outs with the SMH.

So, again, right around 5:30, which again is the uh inclining parallel channel dating all the way back here to the liberation daily lows. And again, just much like drawing this trend line, guys, anybody can pick out the parallel tool and draw this a long-term parallel extending out from pivot to pivot, and then just extend it all the way out on the chart, explaining and showing how price is trying to get above, yet failing, telling us we're likely due for more downside movement on the SMH.