ADBE — All updates

So, let me show you one, because I told you at the start of the video that I'd bring you to it. Guys, Adobe is a company that I've seen fall from a high of 700 down to 200. It got interesting to me under 450. I started buying some shares.

As time went on, people were saying, "You don't get it. AI is going to destroy this company." Meanwhile, Chat GPT and Claude were both partnering with Adobe to use their AI into their systems.

Now, the next one I want to talk about is Adobe. Very interesting chart, right? Taking a look purely at the chart, you could say, well, Lton, this definitely favored a move lower on Adobe Brook.

This beautiful ups sloping trend line continued to fall.

Where would support be? Well, the stock initially opened down off of earnings, right? We can see that what happened. Well, they double beat they beat earnings and beat revenue expectations.

But one thing that they unfortunately didn't do was raise guidance and and as a result of uh poor guidance or lowered guidance rather the stock kind of fell into the open right but you can see that investors weren't as worried and the stock has fully recovered.

Uh Brett says, "Oracle and Adobe, let's see those premiums at the open." Two of the big earnings reports. Adobe gapping down. We'll see what that uh how that pretends for the rest of the day here.

The next stock on our list is going to be Adobe. The ticker is ADBE and it was down 3.07% in the pre-market despite posting better than expected third quarter fiscal 2026 results.

Adobe reported earnings here. Check this out. The stock is down, although catching a little bit of a bid pre-market, but again, here you have a stock that fell into earnings. It's down more.

Check out this trend line. Major trend line. Price broke out. So, what do we know about trend lines that break out? What does price generally like to do? It likes to go back to the scene of the crime.

The scene of the crime means a retrace to that level which had acted as major resistance but now will act as support. And so again, even as a swing trade, I'm not even looking at this as a day trade.

I'm looking at this as a swing trade. If it pulls back to that trend line, I will be a buyer on a swing trade basis.

All right, let's talk Adobe. Those shares under pressure off the back of its latest quarterly results and this keeps happening. They beat expectations and the stock sells off. Doesn't matter uh them beating or not. What's the latest here?

Second subject up here we're going to talk about Oracle and Adobe. Their earnings have come out. I want to share my opinion and perspectives on if I like those stocks, if I don't, those sorts of things.

Next up here, Adobe. Listen. Adobe's a company you can generally count on putting up solid numbers, and this is exactly what they did this quarter. B grade income statement here from Adobe.

Revenue's up 13% it's good, you know, impressive number there.

Adobee's holding on to that 2% loss.

Adobe's coming up. Adobe just appointed a new CEO, by the way, about a week ago. So, the new CEO, uh the stocks fell like 2% after they picked a new CEO. It just doesn't I don't know that it really like puts confidence in the stock when they're like, "Yeah, you know, our strategy sucks so badly. We got to fire the CEO and start over."

All right. Well, we've got Adobe's earnings coming across right now. So, let's flip to those, KG. I'll get you the numbers here. Third quarter EPS coming in at $6.13. Estimate was looking for $6.08.

So, we've got a beat there on EPS. Revenue for their third quarter, 6.76 billion. The estimate was for 6.7, so a slight beat there as well. As we're looking at some of their guidance here, I want to walk through their guidance.

They're raising their fiscal year adjusted EPS guidance to 2445 to 2450 from a previous range of 2435 to 2445. So, a 5 cent increase, but an increase nonetheless. Revenue, they're raising to 26.58 to 26.63 billion.

That's also a very small adjustment, but still an adjustment. First quarter EPS, they're expecting to see between $6.30 and $6.35. That's right in line with the 630 estimate that's at the low end of that range.

Their remaining performance obligations, $22.16 billion. That missed the estimate, and that is likely why we're seeing this move to the downside. We're 1 and 1/3% lower right now.

Their AI first ARR grew more than 150% year-over-year. Monthly active users here, we're looking at 1 billion across creativity and productivity solutions here. And of course, they have their new CEO coming on December 1st.

They announced that last week. Did not get a great response. The street was looking for someone that was coming from the outside, perhaps. But not a huge move to the downside for Adobe. A small move.

And then we have Adobe, which like many software companies, it's been beat down for the past year, but it's reporting earnings this Thursday. Could it have a big bump like Salesforce?

Now, the last stock here is Adobe, which is in the center of the AI disruption debate. Adobe's now down to $256, down another 3%. When we look at this one year-to-date, it's down 23%.

In the past 5 years, Adobe's down a staggering 61%.

Think of companies like Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft.

Even the powerful Adobe company has dropped by 25%.

Adobe's stock fell by 73% .

You should have seen the criticism I received for buying Adobe shares and thinking they were great. I remember seeing messages from people on YouTube and Instagram saying, "Why am I listening to this guy?" "This is the guy who loves Adobe."

The shares of many such companies are still in losses, such as Apple, Oracle, Adobe, etc. So, Adobe is almost at the bottom of this list, and to me that's one of the risks, especially not directly because of generative AI.

If you need generative AI to create something, you probably weren't already a big Photoshop user. The point is, AI is enabling other companies to create competitive products that may be cheaper or more user-friendly for customers.

So, we can also see now that it has fallen a bit in the pre-market.

Those four stocks are Adobe, MGM Resorts, Dick Sporting Goods, and Lyft.

One of them is Adobe. is there a growth problem with Adobe? Well, it doesn't really appear to be the case right now. Total revenue continues to grow at about a 10, 11, 12% growth rate.

So that's actually accelerating over the past couple of quarters. That's really good to see.

The next company we discussed during the past year is Adobe. What can we say here? We have made a 50 % profit since the last time we discussed it , which we did at 270, where we are now.

So, yes, Adobe is an option to buy, but be aware of the risks and returns associated with portfolio exposure. Then when it drops as it did, you have to add now and perhaps restore balance.

And now we are here where we were just 6 months ago . So, the story now is, well, what kind of bets are there now? We ran the Excel program to find out the value of Adobe.

Yes. Well, I feel like this is one that there there's going to be a lot of agreement and disagreement in the comments about Adobe. You know, this is one of those companies that was hit by the SaaS apocalypse earlier this year.

You know, there's been this, I think, concern that because of the rise of generative AI tools, AI agents, the prevalence of that technology, but also how incredibly accurate and more useful it's getting, that you're going to have a essentially almost all software companies just go completely defunct.

I think that there are absolutely software companies that exist right now that will not be here 3 to 5 years from now. That is certain. However, you have to look at a company by company, you know, basis.

You have to look at each platform individually. I personally think Adobe is an example of a company that has been really underestimated by the stock market, particularly as we look at how the business is actually doing, right?

It's Adobe, ticker symbol ADBE. Rate the strength of Adobe's business, including factors like industry and competition. 10 is invincible, a one is hopeless. Both of you have sevens, Matt.

Yeah, I mean, Adobe still has a an enormous user base. It's a sticky user base. People who have used Acrobat, you know, you know, have the Premiere tools and all that, they'll they'll still use it.

Uh monthly active users surpassed 850 million. It grew 20% year-over-year, which is pretty impressive.

The next stock I'll highlight is Adobe, a business that was beaten down as a result of the SAS apocalypse earlier this year, but shares are recovering. Still, I calculated an upside of over 20% for Adobe stock as I calculated a fair value at $351 and a market price of $292.

One of the reasons why I'm optimistic about Adobe is because of the high switching cost. Even if enterprises find an attractive substitute utilizing artificial intelligence that might cost the company less after they switch, the cost of switching is so elevated to switch their entire business process away from Adobe and into a new system is costly for organizations that have been using Adobe for years or even decades.

So I am currently holding Adobe and I am currently holding Asenture and I am holding those in a portfolio waiting of 3.7% per uh per stock.

So basically what that means is we could say okay well let's put Adobe here between S and 80 right just as an example um that would mean okay in 10 or 20 years time we believe Adobe will be still existing and will be a stronger company than today

and then we also have a value today tier list where simultaneously to some extent we'll discuss the same companies but with the premise of saying well do we believe Adobe will be a good company in the next I would say Sean give me your thoughts but I would say like one to four years.