Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.Published 2026-09-08
“FICO Stock - Will it Rebound Back to $2,400?”
$FICOBearish
FICO presents structural risks from debt-financed buybacks and aggressive pricing; it lacks a margin of safety for value investors.
I've received a lot of comments about FICO , so what's going on there? The stock has fallen by 60% while profits are still growing by 40%. So, let's see if there is value or if the risks still exist .
Just one day before I prepared this, the stock had dropped 16-17% due to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac using another points provider. Let's take a quick look at the numbers from the last presentation.
Everything looks amazingly good. Revenue increased by 26%. Points revenue by 41%. The software is stable, but the platform is still growing by 66%. Net income rose by 40%, and earnings per share were astonishing.
Free cash flow is high, and share buybacks are taking advantage of the low share price.