NVDA 是最值得买入的首选标的，当前估值偏低，具备超过 54% 的上涨空间。
逐段跳播
Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋表示，到 2030 年，AI 市场的规模将达到 3 万亿至 4 万亿美元。我将讨论为什么这是一个现实的预测，并详细说明这对 Nvidia 股票投资者以及更广泛的 AI 股票投资者可能意味着什么。
Nvidia CEO Jensen Hong said that the size of the AI market will reach 3 trillion to 4 trillion by 2030. I'm going to discuss why that's a realistic forecast and give you the details on what it could mean for Nvidia stock investors and AI stock investors more broadly.
黄仁勋在周四于高盛 Communicopia 科技大会上的演讲中重申了他的预期，即到 2030 年 AI 市场的规模将达到 3 万亿至 4 万亿美元。
So Jensen Huang reiterated his expectation that the size of the AI market will reach 3 to four trillion by 2030 during the talk at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia Tech Conference on Thursday.
他最初做出这一预测正是在一年前，在同一场活动上。所以，一年之后，我其实很意外黄仁勋没有上调这一预测，因为 AI 市场的增长超过了一年前我们的预期。
It was exactly one year ago that he made the initial prediction at the same event. So, one year later, I'm actually surprised that Jensen Huang didn't increase that forecast because the AI market has grown more than what we expected one year ago.
而且几乎每三个月，当这些公司公布季度财务业绩时，它们几乎全都一致上调了预期，包括 Nvidia。所以这就是为什么我说，我很意外黄仁勋没有把这一预测上调到远高于他一年前所估计的数字。
And almost every three months when these companies reported quarterly financial results, they've almost all unanimously increased their estimates, including Nvidia. And so that's why I'm saying I'm surprised that Jetson Huang didn't increase this forecast to a much higher number than what he estimated just one year ago.
黄仁勋向股市参与者提供的预测一直相对准确，或者说是偏低估。就黄仁勋而言，他一直相对准确，或者略微低估并超额兑现，尤其是在对 Nvidia 季度业绩或年度业绩的预测方面。
Okay, so Jensen Hang has been relatively accurate or underestimating the forecast that he's provided to stock market participants. So with Jensen Juan, he's been relatively accurate or a little bit underestimating and overd delivering, especially when it comes to forecasts for Nvidia's quarterly results or Nvidia's annual results.
他基本上都预测得很准，或者说公司公布的结果好于预期。
He's been pretty much on target or the company has reported better than expected results.
至少在过去四到八个季度里，情况一直如此。
And this has been the case for at least the last uh four to eight quarters.
就 Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋而言，他一直相对准确。如果说有什么偏差，那就是他略微偏向于少承诺、多兑现。他接着表示，半导体行业只会越来越大，这正是我们现在所看到的，背后有这两个基本逻辑：我们有了一个带有新应用的新计算层，以及摩尔定律的终结。
With Nvidia CEO Jensen Hang, he's been relatively accurate. And if if there was a bias, he's been biased towards underpromising and overd delivering slightly. He went on to say the semiconductor industry is just going to keep getting larger and larger, which is what we're seeing now with these two fundamental ideas that we have a new layer of computing with a new application and the end of Moore's law.
人们期望这些 AI 模型越来越聪明，因为他们不喜欢错误的答案。Nvidia 预计其 2028 财年营收增长 70%，这高于分析师对该财年的预期。
People are expecting these AI models to be smarter and smarter because they don't like wrong answers. So, Nvidia is forecasting 70% revenue growth for its fiscal year 2028, which was above what analysts were expecting for that fiscal year.
黄仁勋补充说，如果不是因为存储芯片短缺，他们的营收增长本会大得多，对吧？
Jensen Huang added that their revenue growth would have been much larger if it wasn't for memory chip shortages, right?
所以，如果存储市场没有这些短缺，Nvidia 本可以在其即将到来的财年实现 80% 至 100% 的营收增长。
So, if there weren't these shortages in the memory market, Nvidia could have reported could have uh generated 80 to 100% revenue growth in its upcoming fiscal year.
Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋在季度电话会议上实际上表示，如果不是因为存储芯片短缺，2028 财年的销售额本会大得多。
Nvidia CEO Jensen Hong during the quarterly conference call actually said that sales could be much larger in fiscal 2028 if it wasn't for these memory chip shortages.
而 Nvidia 首席执行官说“大得多”，这意味着至少 80% 或更多，对吧？如果只是多几个百分点，他只会说本会更大，但他在季度电话会议上说的是“大得多”。
And for Nvidia CEO to say much larger, that means at least 80% or more, right? If it was just a few percentage points more, he would have just said it would have been larger, but he said much larger in the quarterly conference call.
所以，Nvidia 首席执行官的这一估计看起来是现实的。按照当前的支出节奏，Nvidia 过去 12 个月的营收已经达到 330 亿美元。
And so this estimate from Nvidia CEO seems realistic. Nvidia already generated $33 billion in trailing 12-month revenue at the current spending pace.
他们在 AI 数据中心市场占据主导份额。此外，他们还持有 Coreeave、Intel、Open AAI 等公司的股权。他们拥有这些公司的一部分。
They have a dominant share of the AI data center market. Additionally, they have ownership interests in companies like Coreeave, like Intel, like Open AAI. They own pieces of these companies.
因此，Nvidia 很可能从这一数万亿美元级别的品类中以多种方式受益。
So, Nvidia is likely to benefit from this multi-trillion dollar category in multiple ways.
这对 Nvidia 股票的投资者来说是个好消息，该股目前的估值仍然相对便宜，远期市盈率仅为 14.6。我知道很多投资者在想到约 5 万亿美元的市值时，可能会觉得 Nvidia 股票很贵，但如果从你获得的每股收益价值以及公司盈利能力来看，它其实相对便宜。
And that's great news for Nvidia stock investors, which is still trading at a relatively cheap valuation of a forward price to earnings of just 14.6. So, I know a lot of investors might think Nvidia stock is expensive when you think about the market capitalization at roughly 5 trillion, but when you think about it in terms of the value you're getting in the earnings per share and the earning power of the company, it's relatively cheap.
同样，当你用贴现现金流模型来评估 Nvidia 的估值时，我为 Nvidia 创建并计算的那个模型认为该业务的价值为每股 338 美元，而今天它的交易价格是 219。
Similarly, when you look at valuation on Nvidia using a discounted cash flow model, the one that I created and calculated for Nvidia sees the value of the business at $338 per share and today it's trading at 219.
所以，无论我用哪种方式评估 Nvidia，它看起来都便宜。我看到超过 54% 的上涨空间。我持有 Nvidia 股票，并且我把 Nvidia 评为 2026 年当下最值得买入的股票。
So, it looks cheap regardless of the way I evaluate Nvidia. I see an upside of over 54%. I own Nvidia stock and I've ranked Nvidia as the best stock you can buy right now in 2026.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。