TLT 全部观点

TLT 这一页 4 条观点条目，其中 0 条方向发生变化。

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$TLTStockCharts TV发布 2026-08-24

《The Sector Rotation Just Changed. Here’s What’s Leading》

TLT目前明显跑输。

看跌

所以，1 2 3 4。是的，7月24日。所以，你看到这些正在滚动下行，而TLT和TLH实际上，你知道，IEF也开始略有改善。所以，我把它们排名为这些是蓝色，这些是橙色。但如果我们现在向前滚动，你可以看到在过去几个月里，情况迅速改变了。

所以，现在较长端，尤其是TLT和TLH，明显是跑输者。

So, 1 2 3 4. Yeah, July 24. So, you saw that these were rolling over and TLT and TLH were actually, you know, IEF as well starting to improve a little bit. So, I had them ranked like these were blue and these were orange. But if we scroll forward now, you can see that picture really rapidly changed over the last couple of months. So, now the longer end, especially TLT and TLH, are clear underperformers.

看原视频10:08

$TLTThe Compound发布 2026-08-24

《Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now | WDWL》

TLT在过去六年中表现不佳，复利为负，其作为投资组合对冲工具的角色现在受到质疑。

看跌

如果你是TLT的投资者，这是iShares旗下非常受欢迎的长期国债ETF，你在2010年代以每年近8%的正复合增长率复利增长。这是一个非常赚钱的投资。在2020年代，由于实际利率从负值飙升至非常正值，你的复合年增长率在这十年至今为负4.4%。

If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular longdated treasury bond ETF out of EyesShares, you compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the 2010s. It was a very good money-making investment. In the 2020s, because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive, your kager, your compound annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.

所以，这从一笔大规模赚钱的交易——做多曲线长端——变成了对投资组合回报极具破坏性的交易。嗯，长期国债投资组合每年7.8%的复合增长率，实际上从信用角度来看是无风险的。你承担的风险是久期风险，因为利率会波动。

但是，从2010年到2019年每年能赚8%，导致许多配置者将TLT或类似产品作为其资产配置中永久的一部分。

So, this went from being a massive money-making trade being long the long end of the curve to being just very destructive to portfolio returns. Um, a kagger of 7.8% a year on a portfolio of long-term treasuries, which effectively from a credit perspective are risk-free. the risk that you're taking is duration risk because the interest rates fluctuate. But like to be able to earn 8% a year from 2010 through 2019 led to a lot of allocators including TLT or something like it as as sort of a permanent part of their um asset allocation.

在过去的6年里，这部分配置的复合增长率为-4.4%。很多人认为TLT应该始终包含在配置中，因为当市场受到重创或经济陷入大麻烦时，它应该作为对冲工具很好地向上表现。

That piece of the puzzle, that piece of the allocation in the last 6 years has been compounding at -4.4%. A lot of people thought TLT should always be included in allocations because when the market's getting killed or the economyy's in big trouble, that should work really well to the upside as a hedge.

你的整体投资组合的对冲在好时光时应该亏钱，而且它确实有效，但我认为很多人现在正在审视这一点，并说也许那不是我希望未来采用的确切对冲。

your hedge your hedge for an overall portfolio should lose money when times are good and it and it's worked but I think a lot of people are now looking at that and saying maybe that's not the exact hedge that I want going forward.

而且看，那笔交易甚至在2020年疫情一切崩溃时也有效。TLT在上涨。它是许多投资组合的锚。只是从那以后它就一直在破坏价值。

And look, that that trade even worked in 2020 when everything was falling apart in the pandemic. TLT was rallying. It was the anchor for a lot of portfolios. It just has been destructive since.

我们刚刚看到TLT在过去六年中以负4%的复合收益率增长。那是真正的风险。

We've just seen TLT compound at negative4% over the last six years. That's real risk.

看原视频05:13

$TLTT3 Live发布 2026-08-24

《NVDA Earnings Week LIVE with Pro Trader Derrick Oldensmith》

TLT面临高通胀、潜在美联储加息以及地缘政治升级推高利率带来的看跌压力。

看跌

人们抛售美国国债，原因有两个。一是因为通胀高企，所以他们预计在某个时点美联储可能不得不加息以抑制通胀，而每次我们看到伊朗局势进一步升级，油价进一步上涨，这都会传导到TLT受到打击，利率上升。

Uh people are selling down Treasuries really for for two reasons. One, because inflation is high, so they're expecting that at a certain point that the Fed may have to hike in order to tamper down inflation and every time we see further escalation in Iran, further move higher in the price of oil, that is transferring through to the TLT getting hit and and rates moving higher.

我们看到市场立即基本上抛售了TLT。我们之前TLT有过一次大幅上涨，所以利率下降了，但两天后TLT又完全回落了。利率在重新走高，市场似乎在说：“你知道，这个小小的扭曲操作还不够。”

And and we saw at the market immediately basically sold the TLT down. We had a we had a big pop in the TLT so interest rates went lower but 2 days later the TLT was all the way back down. Interest rates were working their way back higher and the market was kind of saying, "You know, this little twist operation here is not enough."

我的意思是，现在谁想做空TLT？谁想做空长期债券，如果美国政府有可能介入并购买价值一万亿美元的债券？我当然不会。

I mean, who who the hell wants to be short the TLT? Who wants to be short the long end on on bonds right now if there's a potential that the US government could step in and buy a trillion dollars worth of them. Uh certainly not me.

看原视频05:33

$TLTBrian Shannon发布 2026-08-21

《Stock Market & Crypto Analysis for Week Ending 8/21/26》

TLT中期看跌；复苏需要不再创年度新低并突破83.25，否则仅是在下降趋势中的反弹。

看跌

债券，债券刚刚遭到重创，我认为发生的情况是，财政部长说：“让空头舒服几天，然后我们会进去说些什么，我们会试图打击那些卖空者。”

The bonds, the bonds just got you know, they were they were getting hammered, and what I think happened in there is the Treasury Secretary said, "Let the shorts feel comfortable for a few days, then we'll go in and say something, and we'll we'll try to torch the short sellers."

他们确实这么做了，但随后其他人回来说：“等等，我们为什么要回补空头？让我们重新加上空头。”或者那些空头是加上的？

Which they did, but then other people came back in and said, "Wait a minute, why did we cover our shorts? Let's add that short back on." Or are those shorts added to it?

用言论很难让市场按照你的意愿行事。这是之前的低点，再次成为阻力位。为了让这些债券在中期内显示出任何真正的复苏迹象，它们必须不创年内新低，并且必须突破 83.25。

It's very difficult to top talk the market into doing what you want it to do. This is the prior you know, prior low that became resistance once again. In order for these bonds to show any real signs of recovery in the intermediate term, they're going to have to not make a new low for the year, and they're going to have to get above 83 and a quarter.

如果他们这样做，那么这可能会在这里形成一个更高的低点，然后也许你会看到一次反弹。关键词是反弹，因为它处于下跌趋势中。

If they do that, then this might end up being a higher low in here, and then maybe you get a bounce. Operative word is bounce, because it's in a downtrend.

它可能会反弹至50日均线附近。但债券就是，你知道，非常难看。没有其他看法。

It might get a bounce up towards that 50-day moving average. But bonds are just, you know, plain ugly. That There's There's no other way to look at it.

看原视频13:16

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