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Comfort Systems (FIX): The Five-Bagger We Passed On
$FIX看跌
Comfort Systems是一家高质量且增长强劲的企业,但当前估值过高,加之AI业务的周期性敞口和缺乏安全边际,买入风险过大,因此保持观望。

当你因为一只股票太贵而放弃它,结果它却成为我们覆盖过的最佳表现者之一,会发生什么?这基本上就是我们与 Comfort Systems 的故事。

What happens when you pass on a stock for being too expensive and it goes on to become one of the best performers that we've ever covered? That's basically our story with Comfort Systems.

我们心中有一个公允价值目标,但股价直接突破了它,而我们却袖手旁观。今天,我们将找出我们到底错过了什么,以及昂贵是否真的是我们以为的那个陷阱。

We had a fair value target in mind and the stock blew right through it and we sat on our hands and watched. Today, we're going to find out what exactly we missed and whether expensive was ever really the trap that we thought it was.

Ranking the Best Serial Acquirers in Markets: Tier List
$FIX看跌
Comfort Systems被评为D级系列收购者,因其过度暴露于AI资本开支的周期性,当支出下降时存在减速风险。

好的,这让我们来到今天最后的连环收购者,Comfort Systems。我可以先开始,因为我最初在播客上向我们的同事丹尼尔推荐了Comfort Systems。非常有趣的公司。

All right. Well, that brings us to our last serial acquirer of the day, Comfort Systems. Uh I can kick us off a little bit here because I actually originally pitched Comfort Systems on the podcast to our colleague uh to our colleague Daniel. Um really interesting company.

嗯,我没想到它已经涨了5倍,凯尔?>> 是的。>> 是的,我没想到自从去年春天我说它被高估以来,它已经涨了5倍。所以,你对我说的要有所保留。

Uh, I was not expecting it to Has it been a 5x, Kyle? >> Yes. >> Yeah. I was not expecting it to um 5x since I called it overvalued uh in the spring of last year. So, uh you know, take what I say with uh with a a grain of salt.

Google, Reddit, Amazon, TSMC – Are our Biggest Winners Still a Buy Now?
$FIX未明确方向
说话者承认过去对FIX的看跌/谨慎立场是错误的,因为低估了人工智能数据中心的需求;该股大幅跑赢其320美元的公允价值估计。

我们可能看到的下行风险,我们当然也可以看到像 Dell 或实际上我们接下来要讨论的公司 Comfort Systems 这样的公司的上行空间。

what we could see to the downside then we can certainly also see to the upside in companies like Dell or actually the next company that we'll talk about which is Comfort Systems.

有点好笑,因为 Dell 和 Comfort Systems,可能 Dell 更是如此,它们是非常无聊的推介。我仍然记得我们坐着讨论 Dell,想着天哪,这是我们看过的最不鼓舞人心的公司之一,而现在这些公司完全碾压了预期。

And it's kind of funny because both Dell and also Comfort Systems probably even more Dell they were pretty boring pitches. I still remember us sitting and discussing Dell and thinking gosh this is one of the least inspiring companies that we have yet looked at and now those are the companies that just completely crushed it.

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