NVDA — All updates

There's of course still these concerns about the AI buildout, inflation. Uh this is all coming ahead of Nvidia's uh big second quarter earnings numbers coming out tomorrow after the close. Uh the stock right now is up 1%.

Uh Darius, what are your expectations in particular when it comes to Nvidia? Uh the thinking that we've heard so far this week from several analysts is that it's not that Nvidia isn't going to beat, but they've really got to beat.

It's got to be an extraordinary beat because the expectations are so high going into this one.

Nvidia earnings will absolutely set the tone for how the AI trade is doing which certainly has been lagging recently, right? If we look at the charts and you bring up even Nvidia, Nvidia has been a very poor performer and arguably it did make a high back here, but since that high in May, it has really been struggling substantially.

There is a trend line I'm watching very closely which goes back to the April 2025 lows through the pivot low here in March of uh March 30th, 2026 to this pivot low in July 29th.

And if we come down into this, will this trend line hold or will Nvidia break to the downside? Now, looking at the options market, the options market have an implied move on earnings of about 6% one way or the other.

So, that gives us a little general idea of what the option market expects in terms of a move off earnings from Nvidia for Nvidia.

On Wednesday, after the close, is going to be Nvidia. Nvidia's got earnings after hours, you know this. Uh on Thursday, we did um our sort of statistical overview of how often does Nvidia actually move the markets, and over the last 10 earnings reports, uh the stock had a market-moving move about 40% of the time, four out of 10 times there.

Um most, if not everyone on the planet, thinks that they're going to beat earnings, beat on sales, and then raise guidance. That's it, right? The real question, of course, being spending, and what they're calling uh cyclical funding.

Clever. Is that a new catchphrase that we're all going to talk about now? Means this is like moving money from here to there, and then giving it to them so they give it back to you. Cyclical.

I want to take a closer look at Nvidia cuz Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors. Nvidia pretty much said it's game over for its competitors.

I want to take a closer look at four stocks that I believe can benefit dramatically from this and one stock that I believe needs to make some changes. And if they don't, then things might be a little bearish for this AI giant. today I want to look at Nvidia and this is Nvidia's earnings week.

Big news. We have Nvidia earnings coming up this week. So, this is going to be a Nvidia earnings preview show. We're going to We're going to take a look and dissect the stock, see if it is worth your time and your money, and see if it's something you want to hold into earnings.

Now, here, full disclosure right up front. A, I have no trade on in Nvidia or Nasdaq. So, I have no dog in this fight. Completely uh agnostic to what the outcome is going to be.

So, let's be clear, like he sounds really good, and I I respect Zach for what he's done and what he does. All this sounds really good, but see how quickly we gloss over these things.

I mean, he says three words. I got to freaking pause it and explain.

Token generation, when you look at the Google IO event, has already turned negative on the second derivative. Now, part of that is law of large numbers. But if you're already going negative on the second derivative already, and we're supposedly early, then you're no longer exponential.

You can't have a negative second derivative and call it exponential. What is a negative second derivative? It's a really positive second derivative is the rate of change is getting faster. when the second derivative, so the rate of the growth, how much the growth rate is changing, turns negative.

It means you're still growing. So the first derivative is positive, but you're growing slower. So it's still going up, it's just going up in a more flat way, [laughter] right? Uh so you can't you can't just say, "Oh, exponentially."

What's going to happen with Nvidia earnings?

This is something to know though for companies like Nvidia. Markets expect that market is going or that Nvidia is going to beat expectations. And so the way you have to look at Nvidia is not oh Nvidia is going to beat earnings.

It's that we already expect Nvidia to beat earnings. You know these are the earnings expectations. Okay, we expect those to be low. The market's expectation is earnings are going to come in here.

But markets expectations are built on historically they beat earnings by X%. And so even if you miss like you could beat on guidance but you miss those market expectations stock craters.

You don't see what Nvidia announces, you know, like what they did with this kind of joint AI operation with six of the largest institutions in the world. and speaking of Nvidia, earlier this month on the 10th of August, they announced a $500 $500 billion credit facility partner with Apollo, Black Rockck, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR.

So, if Nvidia is the first loss on these loans, which which they are, um it's just again word smithing.

I own AI stocks. I own Nvidia. I own Google. I own Tesla. I own SpaceX.

if if you stop building AI data centers, then what does Nvidia sell their chips to? Who does Nvidia sell their chips to? Who's buying Nvidia, you know, Vera Rubin chips?

If we don't build the data centers on Earth, then Nvidia doesn't sell enough Vera Rubin chips. They they stop selling data center chips and Nvidia struggles. Nvidia is in deep trouble.

the big dog. It's Nvidia. They're reporting earnings next week. $5.2 trillion market cap. That's a crazy number, right? Look at my whole screen just froze. Such a ridiculous number.

$5.2 trillion. It's the big dog. It's going to be important. This is going to affect the entire market. This is going to affect a ton of stocks, including some stocks that I personally own.

Moving on to Nvidia. Start of the week at 225 and oh, heading into earnings. I thought we would rise. Psych, we were down by 4 and 3/4% finish the week at 214 just 5 days before earnings.

Now, Jefferies expects those Q2 revenues to smash estimates including going Hulk mode, which I'm not exactly sure what that means, but they believe $3 billion to the upside on the revenue estimates sitting right now at $92 billion.

The high end estimate is at $96.66 billion. That would mean a $3 billion smash would basically take you to the high end estimates. I I don't even know if that's enough to move the stock a lot.

I would guess it's all about the guidance going forward. Q3, Nvidia's expecting $103.75 billion. That's Wall Street's estimate. What is Nvidia going to come out? The high-end estimate is for 112.

You put a number up in the Q3, anywhere at 112 or higher, and the stock almost guarantees move higher. Obviously, we'll wait for 5 days, and we'll report on it.

This tightening of this range will be resolved next week as Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday after the close.

Now, I'm hoping that Nvidia runs up ahead of earnings. The scenario I had outlined is maybe on Monday it does an inside day. So, we kind of see something like this, contained within today's range.

The three things sitting at the top of our Rich Habits radar this week included Nvidia's $500 million financing deal that was just announced, inflation data that came in pretty boring, which is good, and tariff refunds >> that you personally might get deposited to your checking account.

because we don't really know or maybe even Nvidia it's you know it's a little bit different as well.

Yeah, Microsoft to me is the one that probably Microsoft and Nvidia are the closest to being in my two hard piles.

The last two companies would be Apple and Nvidia. and then one of them is you know basically if you look at the financials and also at the stock chart this company exists for a long time but really the investment world is talking about it now for three years 3 to four years that's pretty much the time that people talk about Nvidia.

Every single one of those import numbers in the GDP report, semiconductors, telecom equipment, industrial machinery, traces back to the AI buildout that Nvidia is the backbone of.

If you look at Nvidia on Wall Street favorites.com right now, you'll see that despite the recent price action and volatility with GDP, the price target is still at $318, representing over a 60% upside from here.

We both think that Nvidia is cheap, Amazon is cheap.